New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

While Trump did win today by what’s looking to be a high single-digit/low double-digit margin, it’s worth noting that New Hampshire primary voters really don’t look like the rest of the Republican electorate. In a January poll from Suffolk University/USA Today/The Boston Globe, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were asked to rank how enthusiastic they were about Trump as the Republican nominee on a scale from 1 to 10. Voters were about equally likely to rank their enthusiasm for Trump as a 1 (33 percent) as they were a 10 (34 percent), with the remaining third of voters somewhere in between. Compare that to a national poll, taken around the same time, from YouGov/The Economist, in which 61 percent of Republican respondents said they would be enthusiastic about Trump as the nominee, and another 23 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.

Haley’s low double-digit loss tonight might be among the best results she can hope for nationwide. Unless we see some dramatic change in the race (unlikely), tonight’s results continue to suggest that this contest is largely over, and Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee in November.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

I agree with what Jacob said above. Trump's attempts to dismiss Haley might serve to make her more committed to staying in. There's one thing that Haley's right about: Most Americans are actually not that hyped about a rematch between Biden and Trump. They would like someone else to vote for, in theory. But it's often some theoretical, perfect candidate. Up until tonight, Republican primary voters, in polls or in real-life voting, haven't really settled on one of the many Trump challengers. It's possible the winds could change and Haley could win them going forward. But loyalty to Trump has become a litmus test for Republicans, and it's not clear how many of those voters actually exist and are ready to vote for Haley. But if Haley's committed to finding them, the primary might not be over.

—Monica Potts, 538

With about half the expected votes in, both Trump and Haley have given their speeches, and we're getting ready to wrap up here. Haley's so far overperformed her polls by a few points and vowed to stay in the race, but didn't come close to an upset. What are everyone's final takeaways from tonight's result?

—Tia Yang, 538

We have 45 percent of the expected vote reporting in New Hampshire, so our map of the state's towns and cities has started to fill in. And as you'd expect given his 10-or-so point advantage, Trump is winning more places than Haley. And Trump's dominance in many smaller towns throughout the central and southern part of the state speaks to his broader edge.

But it's also the margin of victory for both candidates that tell the tale. For instance, Trump is up by about 15 points in Manchester, the state's largest city, with 80 percent of the expected vote reporting there. Haley needed that to be closer. Trump also leads by 5 points in Nashua, the second-largest city, with 90 percent reporting. Haley does lead by 30 points in Portsmouth, the predominant city in the more affluent and highly educated Seacoast region, with two-thirds of the expected vote in. But her leads in some nearby places are either not large enough, or Trump has an edge, when Haley needed to shade much of that part of the state with her hues. The long and short is that Haley came somewhat close, but not close enough.

—Geoffrey Skelley and Amina Brown, 538