New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

I know we're not finished with New Hampshire yet — and, per Haley's speech tonight, the primary is yet to go on! — but I believe it's never too early for some general election game theory ... So here it is:

A key question for November will be how many of the moderate Republicans who voted for Haley tonight end up voting for Trump. On the one hand, ultimately, Haley voters are still Republicans. The vast majority of them oppose Biden and the Democratic party, so they will probably vote for Trump in the end. But on the other hand, and this is the million dollar question, exactly how Republican are they really? If, say, 5 percent of Haley's supporters defect and vote for Biden or a third party, that could matter in a close election.

Ultimately Trump's poor performance with moderate and college-educated Republicans in the primary so far does not spell doom for him. But it may still highlight one of his key weaknesses for the general.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

This GOP primary has so far been a combination of utterly predictable and utterly unprecedented. A twice-impeached former president seeks to return to office, and has won a majority of voters in the Iowa caucuses and now the New Hampshire primary. Is Trump a quasi-incumbent facing a surprisingly spirited primary challenge from someone who was polling in the single digits over the summer? Haley's margin tonight looks to be close to the vote share Gene McCarthy had in 1968, which drove LBJ from the race. Or is Haley prolonging the inevitable, coming up short even in a state where a large number of college-educated voters and a smaller evangelical Protestant constituency make it especially receptive to anti-Trump candidates? If the usual rules apply, Trump is very well positioned to win the primary. We'll see if Haley can make her home state more competitive than it looks to be now.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

At a certain point, this contest will be about delegate counts and not perceptions. But we haven’t reached that point yet.

Trump’s speech was highly focused on Nikki Haley, suggesting that, despite his victory tonight, she might be making the former president feel a bit threatened. He also continued to spread a clear falsehood about how the New Hampshire primary works — it’s not an open primary, and you have to change your party registration by October 6 in order to cast a primary vote.

However, narratives about outperforming expectations can only fuel a candidate for so long. It’s far from clear what the next few weeks hold for Haley — can she hang on? Will she be able to pick up delegates in later contests? Or was New Hampshire her best shot at a primary victory?

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

While Trump did win today by what’s looking to be a high single-digit/low double-digit margin, it’s worth noting that New Hampshire primary voters really don’t look like the rest of the Republican electorate. In a January poll from Suffolk University/USA Today/The Boston Globe, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were asked to rank how enthusiastic they were about Trump as the Republican nominee on a scale from 1 to 10. Voters were about equally likely to rank their enthusiasm for Trump as a 1 (33 percent) as they were a 10 (34 percent), with the remaining third of voters somewhere in between. Compare that to a national poll, taken around the same time, from YouGov/The Economist, in which 61 percent of Republican respondents said they would be enthusiastic about Trump as the nominee, and another 23 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.

Haley’s low double-digit loss tonight might be among the best results she can hope for nationwide. Unless we see some dramatic change in the race (unlikely), tonight’s results continue to suggest that this contest is largely over, and Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee in November.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538