New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

I know we're not finished with New Hampshire yet — and, per Haley's speech tonight, the primary is yet to go on! — but I believe it's never too early for some general election game theory ... So here it is:

A key question for November will be how many of the moderate Republicans who voted for Haley tonight end up voting for Trump. On the one hand, ultimately, Haley voters are still Republicans. The vast majority of them oppose Biden and the Democratic party, so they will probably vote for Trump in the end. But on the other hand, and this is the million dollar question, exactly how Republican are they really? If, say, 5 percent of Haley's supporters defect and vote for Biden or a third party, that could matter in a close election.

Ultimately Trump's poor performance with moderate and college-educated Republicans in the primary so far does not spell doom for him. But it may still highlight one of his key weaknesses for the general.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

This GOP primary has so far been a combination of utterly predictable and utterly unprecedented. A twice-impeached former president seeks to return to office, and has won a majority of voters in the Iowa caucuses and now the New Hampshire primary. Is Trump a quasi-incumbent facing a surprisingly spirited primary challenge from someone who was polling in the single digits over the summer? Haley's margin tonight looks to be close to the vote share Gene McCarthy had in 1968, which drove LBJ from the race. Or is Haley prolonging the inevitable, coming up short even in a state where a large number of college-educated voters and a smaller evangelical Protestant constituency make it especially receptive to anti-Trump candidates? If the usual rules apply, Trump is very well positioned to win the primary. We'll see if Haley can make her home state more competitive than it looks to be now.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

At a certain point, this contest will be about delegate counts and not perceptions. But we haven’t reached that point yet.

Trump’s speech was highly focused on Nikki Haley, suggesting that, despite his victory tonight, she might be making the former president feel a bit threatened. He also continued to spread a clear falsehood about how the New Hampshire primary works — it’s not an open primary, and you have to change your party registration by October 6 in order to cast a primary vote.

However, narratives about outperforming expectations can only fuel a candidate for so long. It’s far from clear what the next few weeks hold for Haley — can she hang on? Will she be able to pick up delegates in later contests? Or was New Hampshire her best shot at a primary victory?

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor