New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

A nor’easter is socking the New York region today, and it’s pretty terrible timing for New York 3rd District voters. Over 8 inches of snow fell today in Glen Cove, one of the district’s major cities, and unsurprisingly, turnout is reportedly a fraction of what it was in 2022.

That could actually have a material impact on the election result: Since 2020, when Trump spread baseless concerns about the insecurity of voting by mail, Republicans have tended to vote on Election Day, while absentee voting (and, to a lesser extent, early in-person voting) has been disproportionately Democratic.

That pattern looked set to play out in this special election, too: According to Democratic operative Tom Bonier, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 10 percentage points in the early vote and 29 points in the mail vote. And a Feb. 10-12 poll by J.L. Partners found that Suozzi led by 21 points among people who had already voted, while Pilip led by 15 among those who had not yet voted.

In other words, the people who might be stopped from voting today by the snow are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats. So if Pilip loses this race by a hair, she could have the weather to blame.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We’ve warned you about reading too much into what today’s election means for November, but what metrics will tell us something? While we wait for results to come in, I’ve got a podcast episode worth listening to – or maybe adding to the queue for later. On 538 Politics, we recently interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them one question:

What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand the 2024 election — and why?

Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. We cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break one party’s chances, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

—Galen Druke, 538

You can bet that, no matter the outcome of the race in New York tonight, the winning party will find favorable tea leaves for 2024. But it’s important to keep in mind that Pilip and Suozzi are both atypical candidates running in an atypical race — November will likely look very different.

If Republicans win, they’ll point to immigration as a key issue in 2024, one that allowed them to maintain hold of a district that Biden carried by 8 percentage points and step out of the shadow of Santos. It’s a sign that Democrats have indeed gone too far left and a referendum on Biden’s presidency, they’ll argue. But there are a few caveats to keep in mind. First, GOP leadership handpicked their nominee, whose profile is particularly well-suited to the Long Island district: an Ethiopian Jew who served in the Israeli Defense Force before immigrating from Israel to the U.S. Pilip has also said that she wouldn’t support Trump if he is convicted of a crime. If she wins, she’ll get to run for reelection this fall with the advantage of incumbency, but Republicans like her, who take a more moderate stance on both policy issues and Trump, might struggle to win over the GOP primary electorate and make it onto the ballot in November.

If Democrats win, they’ll argue that Pilip was too extreme, particularly on the issue of abortion. They’ll likely highlight the appeal of middle-of-the-road Democratic candidates like Suozzi. But Democrats don’t have Suozzis to run in every congressional district across the country, either. He’s a former member of Congress who has worked alongside Republicans to build a record as a pragmatic centrist, and also has extensive ties to his district. Like Pilip, Suozzi was chosen by party leadership, and didn’t have to veer left to win a competitive Democratic primary. We should also keep a close eye on Suozzi’s margin of victory if he wins — narrowly winning a district that Biden carried by 8 points just a few years ago wouldn’t necessarily be a great sign that Democrats are on the way to winning the House majority.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

The U.S. House of Representatives isn’t the only legislative body with close margins. For the past year, Democrats have held a one-seat (at times no-seat) majority in the Pennsylvania state House — their first in over 10 years. Their tumultuous first year in power saw six special elections held on three separate dates. And today, for the fourth time in just over a year, another state legislative special election will determine the balance of power in the commonwealth’s lower chamber.

The latest race pits Democratic attorney and school board member Jim Prokopiak against Republican restaurant server and former health care aide Candace Cabanas, to fill a seat vacated in December by nine-term Democratic Rep. John Galloway. It’s not a sure thing, but Democrats are favored to hold onto the district, located north of Philadelphia and across the Delaware River from Trenton: In 2020, Biden would have carried it 56 percent to 43 percent. The seat’s importance to maintaining Democrats’ fragile House majority also helped Prokopiak build a massive fundraising advantage over Cabanas.

A Democratic win today would shore up their current 101-100 majority, while a Republican upset would wrest back control. (Although the chamber would be tied at 101-101, there would be one vacant seat previously held by a Republican — and per chamber rules, the House majority in the case of a tie goes to the party that last controlled the vacant seats.)

Meanwhile, four other state legislative special elections will also be held tonight: one in the Bronx, one in the Oklahoma City region and two in Georgia. While these are all expected to be relatively sleepy races, they’re worth noting as data points, to Nathaniel’s earlier note about special elections as predictors of national election results.

—Tia Yang, 538