New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

If Suozzi emerges victorious when the dust settles tonight, he may have his overwhelming financial advantage to thank. Suozzi and his Democratic allies outspent Pilip and her GOP backers on TV nearly 2-to-1, according to data from AdImpact. Overall, Team Blue ran $13.2 million worth of TV advertising — across broadcast, cable, satellite and streaming channels — compared to $7.7 million for Team Red.

Suozzi himself spent $3.85 million on TV, and was bolstered by $5.4 million from House Majority PAC, the main Democratic House super PAC, and $3.9 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Pilip bought just $200,000 in TV ads herself, but received significant support from the GOP Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC ($4.3 million), the National Republican Congressional Committee ($2.3 million) and $967,000 from Secure NYS PAC, a super PAC that won’t have to disclose most of its donors for another month.

Looking only at total dollars spent actually undersells the Democratic advantage on the airwaves. That’s because Suozzi’s campaign spent so much more than Pilip’s campaign, and candidates get much more favorable pricing for their ads than super PACs do. Democrats overall were able to air 6,964 gross ratings points (the metric professionals use to measure the reach of TV ads) compared to just 3,526 for Republicans.

It’s no accident that Suozzi has been able to marshal more financial firepower than Pilip; according to the latest FEC filings, which covered a period ending Jan. 24, he outraised her by a factor of three. Suozzi is a fixture on the political scene and had the fundraising network of a three-term congressman and two-time gubernatorial candidate, while Pilip began the race as a little-known county legislator. That comparative advantage is probably a major reason party leaders picked Suozzi to begin with, and if he wins, it will look like a bet that paid off big.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Howdy, I'm Brittany Shepherd, a national politics reporter who works over yonder at ABC News. I actually grew up in NY-03 (I wish there was a way to write this in my Long Island accent … ) and have been spending some time in my hometown covering this race.

One thing I’ll be watching is how densely Jewish populated areas in the district will break in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, given Pilip's background living in Israel and serving in the IDF, versus Suozzi walking the tightrope of voicing strong support for Israel while also attempting to court Muslim and Arab American voters. The Israel-Hamas conflict is intensely personal in the district, too, as one of the hostages being held by Hamas, 22-year-old IDF soldier Omer Neutra, is from the district. About 11 percent of the voting population in the district is Jewish, per The Jewish Democratic Council of America.

—Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

A nor’easter is socking the New York region today, and it’s pretty terrible timing for New York 3rd District voters. Over 8 inches of snow fell today in Glen Cove, one of the district’s major cities, and unsurprisingly, turnout is reportedly a fraction of what it was in 2022.

That could actually have a material impact on the election result: Since 2020, when Trump spread baseless concerns about the insecurity of voting by mail, Republicans have tended to vote on Election Day, while absentee voting (and, to a lesser extent, early in-person voting) has been disproportionately Democratic.

That pattern looked set to play out in this special election, too: According to Democratic operative Tom Bonier, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 10 percentage points in the early vote and 29 points in the mail vote. And a Feb. 10-12 poll by J.L. Partners found that Suozzi led by 21 points among people who had already voted, while Pilip led by 15 among those who had not yet voted.

In other words, the people who might be stopped from voting today by the snow are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats. So if Pilip loses this race by a hair, she could have the weather to blame.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We’ve warned you about reading too much into what today’s election means for November, but what metrics will tell us something? While we wait for results to come in, I’ve got a podcast episode worth listening to – or maybe adding to the queue for later. On 538 Politics, we recently interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them one question:

What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand the 2024 election — and why?

Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. We cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break one party’s chances, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

—Galen Druke, 538