New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

We have our first results out of the 3rd District from Queens County, where around 16,000 votes have reported. Suozzi leads 63 percent to 37 percent among those. However, these first results are also the most likely to be Democratic-leaning because they're mostly Queens's early and mail votes, and we know that the partisan split in vote method is such that Democrats are more likely to use those avenues to vote than Republicans, who tend to prefer voting on Election Day.

Those votes make up 54 percent of the total expected vote in Queens, but just 9 percent of the Third District's overall expected vote. The Queens portion will only make up a fraction of votes tonight: In 2022, it cast 18 percent of all votes in the district, compared with 82 percent from Nassau County. But that doesn't mean it doesn't matter — Queens is more Democratic-leaning, meaning that a notable difference in turnout compared with the Nassau part of the district could impact the final outcome.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Since his expulsion from the House in December, Santos has been busy defending himself against federal charges. Last year, Santos was charged with 23 felonies in an election-fraud scheme in federal court. And though he previously pleaded not guilty on each count and rejected the possibility of a plea deal, prosecutors announced in December that the parties were negotiating to reach a deal for Santos to plead guilty and avoid going to trial. Santos's case is not due in court again until August, ahead of a September trial date, potentially giving his legal team and prosecutors time to reach a resolution.

As for what the charges are about, Santos is accused of a battery of fraud-related crimes, including using a fake super PAC for political donations, which he then allegedly spent on everything from his rent to botox. He was first indicted in May, but was charged with additional counts in October. Fellow Republican Rep. Max Miller from Ohio even revealed that he and his mother had been victims of Santos's alleged scheme when their credit cards were charged without their knowledge, and Miller said he suspected other House colleagues had had the same experience. Perhaps siphoning money from colleagues was not a good way to make friends: As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, Santos became only the sixth member of the House to ever be expelled, and the first in the modern era to be expelled prior to being convicted of any crimes.

Of course, appearing in court is not all that Santos is doing these days. He's also earning big bucks making appearances on Cameo and otherwise taking advantage of his 15 minutes of fame. With the election to replace him underway, and his court case pressing on toward a resolution, maybe that time is almost up.

—Monica Potts, 538

When I traveled to New York's 3rd District two weeks ago, there was a part of me that expected to find a bit of a circus atmosphere surrounding the special election. After all, it was the first seriously contested House special of the Biden presidency, and it was taking place under the shadow of the Santos scandal. As we've discussed, the outcome has massive implications for the current narrow GOP majority, which can barely pass anything as is, and could give Democrats a head start on their path to flipping the House this fall.

Instead, I found a pretty sleepy race, all things considered. There were no campaign events during the two days I was in town, a Monday and Tuesday, and only one person showed up to the Suozzi canvassing event I checked out. The Democrat had a bunch of campaign offices around the district, but the three I stopped by, including campaign headquarters, weren't exactly buzzing with activity.

I spoke to a number of local Democrats who expressed concern about low levels of enthusiasm in their party; they were especially worried that Suozzi wasn't doing enough to motivate rank-and-file Democrats because he was too focused on winning back moderates and independents who had swung toward Republicans in recent years. Coupled with the organizational muscle of the Nassau Republican Party, local activists and officeholders I spoke to were worried they were on pace for an upset.

Democrats have developed a serious branding problem on Long Island since 2020. The party had a bad 2021 local election cycle, when they lost every countywide office in Nassau; a bad 2022, when they lost all four Long Island congressional seats for the first time in decades; and a bad 2023, when they lost control of the North Hempstead Town Council for the first time since 1989. So I sensed a lot of desperation from them heading into this special election. If Suozzi, who's been around forever and can point to his concrete record of breaking with the national and state party on crime and immigration, can't get his party over the finish line, it's not obvious who can.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

If you're a close political observer, you may remember that, in December, New York's top court ruled that the state's congressional map must be redrawn. The state's redistricting commission was ordered to submit a new map by Feb. 28, although observers believe Democrats and Republicans on the commission will probably not be able to agree on a single proposal. That would kick the redraw over to the Democratic-controlled state legislature, which would likely draw the new map in a way that favors their party.

Since this special election is to fill the term that Santos was elected to in 2022, today's election was always going to take place along the 2022 lines regardless of redistricting developments. But whoever wins today will have to immediately turn around and campaign for reelection in a district that looks at least a little bit different — and probably bluer, if the legislature does indeed get its way.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538