Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.

After the 2020 census, each state redrew its congressional district lines (if it had more than one seat) and its state legislative districts. 538 closely tracked how redistricting played out across the country ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. So everything is done and dusted, right?

Not so fast, my friend. More than a half-dozen states face the prospect of having to go through the redistricting process again, mostly due to federal and/or state litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering concerns. Both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to flip seats in districts drawn more favorably than they were last cycle. For example, Democrats appear poised to pick up at least one seat in Alabama and could theoretically get more favorable maps in Louisiana and Georgia. Republicans, meanwhile, could benefit from more favorable 2024 maps in North Carolina and New Mexico.

We’ll be using this page to relay major developments in midcycle redistricting, such as new court rulings and district maps, and examine how they could affect the political landscape as we move deeper into the 2024 election cycle. We’ll predominantly focus on congressional maps, but will share the occasional key update on conflicts over state legislative districts.

The Supreme Court rules on South Carolina’s House map

On Thursday, seven months after it heard oral arguments, the Supreme Court finally ruled in Alexander v. the South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP, which charged that South Carolina's 1st District was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. In a 6-3 decision along ideological lines, the court ruled that a lower court was wrong to strike down the 1st District, but it sent the case back to the lower court for further consideration.

The ruling does not have any immediate practical implications; back in March, the lower court decided that South Carolina would have to use the disputed map in this year's election anyway because the Supreme Court was taking so long to rule. And with the book still open on the case, it's still possible that the district will end up getting struck down again for 2026 and beyond.

However, in his majority opinion, Justice Samuel Alito noted the difficulty of proving that race, not partisanship, was the driving factor behind a map when race and partisanship are so closely correlated. In so doing, he raised the standard for proving racial gerrymandering, saying that legislatures should get the benefit of the doubt when they say they were engaging in partisan gerrymandering (which is legal under federal law) instead.

Louisiana’s congressional map is so back

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court reinstated a version of Louisiana’s congressional map that contains two Black-majority, Democratic-leaning districts — at least for the 2024 election.

Last month, a lower court had struck down that map for relying too much on race. But the Supreme Court temporarily put that ruling on hold, saying it was too close to the election to change the map. Interestingly, the court’s six conservatives voted to reinstate the map, while the three liberals dissented, even though the map will almost certainly cause Republicans to lose a House seat. In a solo dissent, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson didn't argue against the outcome itself but wrote that she believed the court intervened too early.

Louisiana’s new congressional map struck down

A panel of three federal judges struck down Louisiana's new congressional lines on Tuesday, surprisingly throwing a last-minute twist into the 2024 congressional map.

Earlier this year, the Louisiana legislature redrew the state's congressional map to add a second Black-majority district after a court ruled that the old map violated the Voting Rights Act by not giving Black voters enough representation. This turned a solid-red seat, the 6th District, into a solid-blue seat, giving Democrats a near-guaranteed pickup this fall.

But the new 6th District was awkwardly shaped, stretching diagonally across the state from Shreveport to Baton Rouge, giving rise to complaints it was a racial gerrymander — essentially, that it was drawn based on race above all else. These three judges agreed, saying the district violated the 14th Amendment's equal protection clause.

That doesn't necessarily mean Louisiana won't get a second Black-majority, safely Democratic district, though. It's easy to draw such a district that's more compact, going from Baton Rouge up the Mississippi River. It remains to be seen what the state will do next; the judicial panel will meet again on May 6 to discuss next steps.

South Carolina will use its old congressional map in 2024

Time's up, Supreme Court! That's what a panel of three federal judges declared on Thursday, as they decided that South Carolina must use the congressional map it used in 2022 in the 2024 election as well.

The panel had previously struck down South Carolina's 1st District as a racial gerrymander because it did not have enough Black voters, which had turned the one-time swing district into a more safely Republican seat. However, Republicans appealed that ruling to the Supreme Court, which has been sitting on the case for months. The three-judge panel finally decided that it was too late to make any changes for 2024, given that Monday is the deadline for congressional candidates to file to run. As a result, Democrats will miss out on a chance to flip another district in their favor this year.

Court orders New York to redraw congressional map

For months, the U.S. House delegation from New York has been waiting to hear whether they’d run in the same districts in 2024 as they did in 2022. Now, they have their answer — or, at least part of it.

On Tuesday, New York’s Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, ordered the Independent Redistricting Commission to submit a revised congressional redistricting plan to the state Legislature, based on data from the 2020 Census. But what that map looks like — and which incumbents could find themselves in competitive seats — remains to be seen. The court order requested that the IRC submit a new map to the state legislature “on the earliest possible date,” with a firm deadline of Feb. 28.

Much of the drama in the coming months will center around local politics, with conflicting personalities and interests complicating what should be a relatively mundane process. But New York is home to five Republican freshmen who represent districts that Biden carried — plus former Rep. George Santos’ now-vacant seat in a sixth district that Biden carried. With Democrats in need of five additional House seats to win the majority, the race for the House runs straight through the Empire State.

But there’s little reason to expect the IRC to agree on a map this time around, when it failed to do so just two years ago. That would put map-drawing back into the hands of the state legislature — and, most likely, back into a series of court cases poking holes at the constitutionality of the new lines.

“It’s likely that there will be litigation unless both major political parties agree on a deal,” said Blair Horner, executive director of New York Public Interest Research Group, adding, “It’s hard to imagine why the Republicans would agree to any deal, given that the stakes are so high because control of the House may well run through New York in 2024.”

At least one more House race will be held on the current maps: the special election to replace Santos, scheduled for Feb. 13. In that race, county party leaders select the nominees in lieu of a traditional primary.

The big question now is which New York Republicans end up getting the short end of the stick. As Democrats celebrated the court’s decision, Rep. Mike Lawler, one of the freshman Republicans who represents a district that Biden carried, spoke out against it, characterizing it as a “pathetic” ploy meant to favor Democrats. Another Biden-district freshman Republican, Rep. Marc Molinaro said of the decision, “There’s nothing fair about this.”