New York 3rd District special election: Suozzi projected to defeat Pilip

In terms of what factors might actually externalize out of NY-03 tonight, I'd pick the durable appeal of the ideological moderate as a likely one. This is not the place to rehash the social science evidence for the benefits of ideological moderation in general elections, but note that Suozzi ran to the right of most Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. These are issues that are particularly important to New Yorkers right now, but also relevant in other swing districts.

Abstracting from that, one piece of "News Analysis" (scare quotes intentional) is that much of the coverage of Joe Biden's potentially weakness versus Donald Trump in November has revolved around the president's weakness with lefty young voters over the situation in Israel-Gaza since October. And while that may end up proving consequential, an easier prediction is that Biden will suffer more if he is seen as a liberal ideologue.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Despite what looks to be a relatively comfortable win for Democrats tonight, our entire conversation tonight only emphasizes how closely the country is divided on partisan lines.

As Nathaniel said, Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House, and Democrats will be fighting to keep their majority in the Senate this fall. It's early, but we expect the presidential election to be close. Whatever happens in any individual race, politics in the country remains deeply divided. We'll keep seeing more evidence of that the closer we get to November.

—Monica Potts, 538

I don't even think you need to think this election is predictive of November to think it's a big deal. Republicans are sweating every vote they take in the House these days, as we saw today with the Mayorkas impeachment vote. And now Democrats will have an extra "nay" on their side. I think Republicans may come to regret the fact that they let Democrats outspend them here.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

I’m happy to be back (from maternity leave, in case anyone wondered), blogging and staring at election results with this crew well after the sun has set. Looking forward to the long election season ahead!

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538