New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins

As usual, tonight we'll be tracking candidates in Colorado's, New York's and Utah's primaries, along with one runoff in South Carolina, whose campaign websites use the phrase "pro-life," "sanctity of life," "right to life," "protect life," "no abortion," "against abortion" or "unborn" and do not say abortion is an issue of states' rights.

In South Carolina, abortion is banned after six weeks. In the 3rd District runoff there, Biggs describes herself as anti-abortion and has promised to "defend the sanctity of life" if elected. She has also been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Abortion is banned in Utah after 18 weeks. All four Republican Senate candidates and at least one Republican House candidate in each of the state's four congressional districts are on our list, including 4th District Rep. Burgess Owens, who is running unopposed. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is also anti-abortion, but he is nevertheless facing a challenge from the right by state Rep. Phil Lyman, who argues the governor is too moderate overall. Whoever wins the primary is likely to succeed in November against the Democratic challenger, state Rep. Brian King.

By contrast, New York law protects abortion rights, and voters may have a chance to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution if a proposed Equal Rights Amendment makes it onto the November ballot. Three Republican candidates in New York state are on our list. In the Republican-leaning 23rd and 24th districts, Rep. Nicholas Langworthy is running unopposed, and Mario Fratto, who lost to Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2022, is challenging the incumbent from the right again. But the Republican incumbent in the 22nd district, Rep. Brandon Williams, is more vulnerable, as redistricting left the district slightly bluer. Indeed, while New York Democrats plan to campaign on abortion rights to drive voters to the polls in November, Republicans in the state have been downplaying the issue.

—Monica Potts, 538

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado's 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to fill out the remainder of his term.

Though Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she isn't running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and a 2022 candidate for governor. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what should be an uncompetitive special election tonight.

But there's at least an outside possibility the race could surprise us. Democrats recently overperformed in another House special election, in Ohio's 6th District, that was thought to be a walkover for the GOP. That seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, had voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP nominee won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado's 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would result in a very tight race.

However, there are plenty of reasons why that may not be the case. Unlike in Ohio, where the special election was the only race happening in the state and turnout was in the basement, the Colorado special election is concurrent with a statewide primary race that will boost turnout. And in the 4th District specifically, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a bunch of other candidates will probably boost Republican turnout specifically.

But it wouldn't take a Calvarese win to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have been putting together a healthy record so far ahead of the 2024 elections. Since the beginning of 2023, Democrats have overperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to a 538 analysis, and in special elections overall by a similar margin.

At a moment when national polling looks middling at best for Democrats, a stronger-than-expected showing tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

After coming within 600 votes of losing her seat in the 2022 midterm election and enduring an awful year in her personal life, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert has ditched her district to attempt to win over Republican voters on the other side of the state, in the 4th District. This seat, which was previously held by Republican Rep. Ken Buck — who resigned earlier this year after announcing his retirement last year — is more reliably red, having gone for Trump by a margin of 19 percentage points in 2020 (compared to an 8-point margin in the 3rd). So if Boebert can secure the GOP nomination, she'll all but guarantee herself a spot in the next Congress.

Standing in her way are some primary candidates with more local cachet, such as former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and Deborah Flora, a former Miss Colorado and local talk radio host. However, Boebert has a major fundraising advantage (she's raised $3.7 million, compared to the next-highest raiser, Flora, who's raised less than half a million), as well as Trump's endorsement, and the sole poll we have for this race shows her up 35 percentage points. So she's definitely got a solid shot at the primary in her new district.

In addition to the race to fill this seat in the 119th Congress, there is a separate special election to see out Buck's term. Republicans are favored to win that race.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

With Boebert out of the picture on the Western Slope, the GOP primary for Colorado's 3rd District has been heating up. A whopping 11 candidates originally filed to run for the GOP nomination in this district, but only five serious contenders are on the primary ballot: attorney Jeff Hurd, former state Rep. Ron Hanks, retired businessman Lew Webb, Colorado Board of Education member Stephen Varela and businessman Russ Andrews.

Hurd has a clear fundraising advantage here, with over $1 million in his war chest, compared to the next-highest fundraiser on the ballot, Andrews, who brought in $423,000. Hurd's haul includes cash infusions from the Koch brothers and other conservative PACs like the Mainstreet Partnership, and the national cattlemen's and automobile dealer's associations. But Hanks, a more MAGA-aligned candidate who ran for Senate in 2022, is getting some outside support as well … from Democrats. As they did in 2022, Democratic groups have been airing pro-Hanks ads, presumably betting that a candidate like Hanks — an election denier who once dubbed himself a "pro-Trump warrior" — would be a weaker general election candidate. Still, it seems like Hurd has the edge: A June poll showed him with an 18-point lead. Whoever wins will most likely face off this fall against presumed Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, the business owner who nearly unseated Boebert in 2022.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538