New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: Bowman loses, Boebert wins

As Mary wrote earlier, only 3 percent of New Yorkers said that abortion was a key issue in advance of these primaries, down from 11 percent last year. Abortion access is protected in the state, but Democrats were hoping to nationalize it as an issue to win key races this fall. A vote for a Republican in the House or Senate, the thinking goes, is one step closer to a national abortion ban.

However, that strategy didn’t work for Klee Hood, who made access to abortion a centerpiece of her campaign. She lost to Mannion, who also supports abortion rights but also supports some restrictions after 24 weeks. If that issue isn’t as top of mind for New York voters, or other blue state voters, by the time November comes, that could make it harder for Democrats to gain an advantage in tighter general election races in close districts. That’s especially because voters do still care a lot about economic issues and rate Biden’s handling of the economy poorly. Whether abortion will be as much of a deciding factor this year as it was in the midterms, which proved to be good for Democrats, remains one of the biggest questions of this election cycle.

—Monica Potts, 538

We've talked a lot about the many millions AIPAC spent to take down Bowman in New York's 16th District and about losing GOP candidates who faced sizable outside opposition from groups that opposed more anti-establishment Republicans in primaries. In many of these cases, these outside groups came in and spent a lot of money to oppose or support a candidate, and, unsurprisingly, that influenced the outcome!

But the candidates also mattered a great deal in making outside groups' lines of attack and support count in these primaries. Bowman wasn't that strong to begin with, for instance, and he'd made headlines for many wrong reasons in recent months. Someone like Williams in Colorado had angered a lot of people in his party, making it easier for the sizable outside investment against him to work. In South Carolina, Burns had Trump's endorsement, but he also had a very controversial background that may have encouraged outside groups to invest in Biggs to beat him.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Trump's out-of-pocket endorsements of non-incumbent, contested candidates who really didn’t seem favored to win were a gamble that didn’t pay off. What it did demonstrate is that a Trump endorsement, though it does carry weight in a Republican primary, is not the Midas touch he likes to pretend it is.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Only one race we’re watching is still unresolved (the Republican primary for Utah’s 2nd District), so it’s time for some final thoughts. What big-picture takeaways do folks have from tonight’s results?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538