Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

Pennsylvanians will technically pick their nominees today for the state's U.S. Senate election this fall, though the results won't be a nail-biter — both major party candidates are running unopposed in their primaries. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is running for a fourth term, while David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and diplomat under the Bush administration, is hoping to claim the seat for Republicans.

While today's primary isn't competitive, the general election matchup is already attracting a lot of attention. Democrats currently have just a one-seat majority in the Senate and are defending at least seven competitive seats this cycle, including Casey's in Pennsylvania. That means control of the chamber could come down to the Keystone State, a prospect that both parties are taking seriously.

Both candidates have already dropped millions of dollars on the race. While McCormick slightly outraised his opponent last quarter, Casey has spent over two and a half times as much money this cycle and has close to twice as much cash on hand as McCormick.

Casey also leads in every poll we've collected of the race, although some of those leads are within the margin of error. All the major election handicappers agree that he appears to have an edge in the race for now, though it's still competitive enough that things could easily change by November. Tonight won't be able to tell us much about the future, but it marks the official start to one of the most closely watched matchups this cycle.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Reporting live from the 12th District, there have definitely been some shenanigans playing out here in the Lee-Patel race, Geoffrey, so I'll be interested to see what happens with the other Squad challenges. For example, the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club, an influential progressive group located on the East End in Pittsburgh, endorsed Patel over Lee. In 2022, the IDC endorsed Lee over the more moderate Steve Irwin, so it may look like the club has had a change of heart.

However, there's much more happening behind the scenes. Allegheny County's 14th Ward includes Squirrel Hill, traditionally the home of Pittsburgh's orthodox Jewish community. In January of this year, over 150 new members became a part of the IDC in advance of their annual votes on board members and endorsements, growing the club's membership by more than 50 percent. The new IDC members ousted board members that they considered too pro-Palestine, and were instrumental in directing the group's endorsements. So while it may appear to voters that a progressive group is abandoning Lee, a peek behind the curtain reveals quite a bit more is going on.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.

Lee's critics have often portrayed her as more dogmatic than pragmatic, a theme Patel's campaign has played up by arguing that Lee wants to undermine Biden and the Democratic Party. She has run ads attacking Lee for opposing the Biden administration and criticized Lee's support for the "uncommitted" movement in the presidential primary that wants Biden to adopt a less pro-Israel stance. Lee has countered by emphasizing her ability to bring federal investment to the district and her pro-choice record. Her campaign has also criticized "Republican-funded super PACs" for meddling — a reference to Patel's backing from Moderate PAC, a group mostly funded by a GOP donor, and the potential influence of the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has said it might spend $100 million against progressives this cycle.

Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

It'll still be a little while before full results start rolling in from Pennsylvania, and, in the meantime, allow me to suggest some easy listening. Yup, it's the 538 Politics podcast!

On Monday's episode we previewed a couple of tonight's races in Pennsylvania and talked about the state's significance come November. We also considered whether House Speaker Mike Johnson can last as something of a coalitional speaker, frequently relying on votes from Democrats to get legislation passed. And lastly, we tested our knowledge of what Americans think about climate change, according to the polls. Give it a listen!

—Galen Druke, 538