Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.
Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Pennsylvania voters split on Senate preferences, while many don't feel strongly
Pennsylvania is one of several critical swing states with a U.S. Senate election this November. While neither party's primary is contested today, we're going to be hearing a lot about this contest, which will help determine who controls the chamber. Unsurprisingly, Pennsylvania voters are fairly evenly divided when it comes to which party they'd rather see in control, but nearly one in five don't seem to see much of a difference. Asked in a CNN/SSRS survey in March whether they thought the nation would be better or worse off if Republicans won control of the chamber, 38 percent of registered voters said they thought it would be better off and 42 percent thought it would be worse off. Nineteen percent said it will not make any difference.
The Keystone State's key Senate race is on autopilot tonight
Pennsylvanians will technically pick their nominees today for the state's U.S. Senate election this fall, though the results won't be a nail-biter — both major party candidates are running unopposed in their primaries. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is running for a fourth term, while David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and diplomat under the Bush administration, is hoping to claim the seat for Republicans.
Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick speaks to supporters at the Indigo Hotel during a primary election night event on May 17, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Penn.
Jeff Swensen/Getty Images, FILE
While today's primary isn't competitive, the general election matchup is already attracting a lot of attention. Democrats currently have just a one-seat majority in the Senate and are defending at least seven competitive seats this cycle, including Casey's in Pennsylvania. That means control of the chamber could come down to the Keystone State, a prospect that both parties are taking seriously.
Both candidates have already dropped millions of dollars on the race. While McCormick slightly outraised his opponent last quarter, Casey has spent over two and a half times as much money this cycle and has close to twice as much cash on hand as McCormick.
Casey also leads in every poll we've collected of the race, although some of those leads are within the margin of error. All themajorelectionhandicappers agree that he appears to have an edge in the race for now, though it's still competitive enough that things could easily change by November. Tonight won't be able to tell us much about the future, but it marks the official start to one of the most closely watched matchups this cycle.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has impacted local dynamics in Lee's race
Reporting live from the 12th District, there have definitely been some shenanigans playing out here in the Lee-Patel race, Geoffrey, so I'll be interested to see what happens with the other Squad challenges. For example, the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club, an influential progressive group located on the East End in Pittsburgh, endorsed Patel over Lee. In 2022, the IDC endorsed Lee over the more moderate Steve Irwin, so it may look like the club has had a change of heart.
However, there's much more happening behind the scenes. Allegheny County's 14th Ward includes Squirrel Hill, traditionally the home of Pittsburgh's orthodox Jewish community. In January of this year, over 150 new members became a part of the IDC in advance of their annual votes on board members and endorsements, growing the club's membership by more than 50 percent. The new IDC members ousted board members that they considered too pro-Palestine, and were instrumental in directing the group's endorsements. So while it may appear to voters that a progressive group is abandoning Lee, a peek behind the curtain reveals quite a bit more is going on.
The 12th District Democratic primary will test The Squad’s strength
In the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, progressive Rep. Summer Lee could be vulnerable against Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel in the Democratic primary. Two years ago, in her first bid for this seat, Lee only won her primary by less than a point. And Patel's challenge has turned into a referendum on Lee's party bona fides. Behind this is Lee's membership in The Squad, a group of progressive House Democrats who've often been at odds with party leaders. This has been especially apparent in the intraparty debate over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, most recently demonstrated by The Squad joining with about one-sixth of House Democrats in voting against foreign aid to Israel.
Progressive U.S. House candidate Summer Lee speaks to reporters, alongside Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey, after voting in the primary election at a polling station in Pittsburgh, Penn., May 17, 2022.
Heading into the primary, Lee probably has the upper hand. We have no polls, but Lee had outraised Patel nearly 4-to-1 ($2.3 million to $602,000) as of April 3. Meanwhile, outside spending has run about even, according to OpenSecrets. Surprisingly, though, AIPAC's super PAC has not spent money against Lee despite investing $3.9 million to stop her in the 2022 primary. That may mean that AIPAC thinks Patel can't win, that she already has sufficient support and/or that support associated with AIPAC could harm Patel more than help her.