Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

In the 10th District around Harrisburg, we now have early votes in from across all three counties in the district, representing almost half of the expected primary vote. This race doesn't look particularly close, either, as Stelson leads with 46 percent, followed by O'Brien with 21 percent and Daniels 13 percent. Hard to see Stelson losing that kind of edge at this point. The winner will face Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

That’s right, Meredith, and as I mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022, but there are signs that this race could be tighter. It’s a purple district that has seen some shifts to the left, namely some recent school board elections. Voters flipped the Central Bucks School District from majority Republican to majority Democratic in an election last year, and Democrats swept the Pennridge School Board election. Of course, school board elections have their own quirks, particularly with some of the identity politics issues that have come to a head in recent years, but we could see a similar friction emerge with abortion as a hot-button issue in the general. While Fitzpatrick is hardly an anti-abortion activist, it’s an area where he hasn’t been as clearly moderate (he’s voted for abortion bans, for example, and his campaign website avoids the issue entirely), and Ehasz has a clear advantage on this front. Of course, Fitzpatrick’s incumbency and the more conservative reaches of the district could certainly be enough to keep him in his seat, but I’d be willing to bet it will be by a slimmer margin than last time, if he manages to pull it off.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Coming as no surprise to anyone, ABC News projects that Biden and Trump will win their respective primaries in the Keystone State. But that doesn't mean voters are going to be happy about the outcome in November. In a March survey by Franklin and Marshall College, a majority of Pennsylvania voters said they would be sad if either Biden or Trump is reelected. When asked if they would feel happy or sad if each candidate won, 50 percent said they would be sad if Biden won and 53 percent said the same about Trump. Forty-eight percent said they would be happy if Biden won, and 43 percent would be happy if Trump won.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ABC reports that Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans is projected to win his primary in the central and west Philadelphia-based 3rd District. With 29 percent of the expected vote reporting, Evans has a resounding 89 percent of the vote over challenger Tracey Gordon, the city's former register of wills. Evans has effectively secured a fifth term in Congress tonight, with no Republican challenger currently on the ballot in this majority Black, deep-blue district.

—Irena Li, 538