Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

Last Updated: April 23, 2024, 6:00 PM EDT

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Geoffrey Skelley Image
Apr 23, 2024, 9:03 PM EDT

Lee's lead grows as votes cast on Election Day are counted

Lee now leads Patel 57 percent to 43 percent in Pennsylvania's 12th District Democratic primary, with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Allegheny County has begun reporting votes cast on Election Day (that is, not early or by mail), and Lee is winning about 3 in 4 of those votes so far. That edge may not last, but considering Lee leads 55 percent to 45 percent among the early and mail votes, she doesn't need much to hold her lead. A Patel comeback looks quite unlikely. In fact, Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Lee a few minutes ago. We're still waiting for a projection from ABC, though.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Apr 23, 2024, 8:56 PM EDT

No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Sen. Bob Casey speaks during an event at AFSCME Council 13 offices, Mar. 14, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pa.
Marc Levy/AP

Meredith Conroy Image
Apr 23, 2024, 8:54 PM EDT

Stelson is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the 10th District

In Pennsylvania's 10th District, where several Democrats were in today’s primary, former evening news anchor Janelle Stelson is currently leading with 48 percent of the expected vote in. Stelson has backing from EMILY’s List, which is historically a good sign. According to our analysis of the 2022 primaries, 85 percent of candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List’s in open primaries won their races. Interestingly, three candidates in open primaries endorsed by EMILY's List in California did not advance to the general election, which will bring down their success rate. But we'll need to wait and see how EMILY's List candidates do overall this cycle.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Monica Potts Image
Apr 23, 2024, 8:51 PM EDT

How anti-abortion candidates are doing

As I mentioned earlier, I'm tracking how anti-abortion Republicans are doing tonight. As Mary said, most Pennsylvanians support legal abortion, and it's shaping up to be a big issue in November. Three of the races I'm tracking are uncontested, and so we already have projected winners. Two incumbents, Rep. Scott Perry, who has six Democrats running to face off against him, and Lloyd Smucker, whose Democratic opponent pilot Jim Atkinson is also uncontested in the primary, are among the group. Aaron Bashir, a mathematics teacher at a community college and accountant for the city of Philadelphia, is the only Republican running to face off against incumbent Democrat Brendan Davis in the fall. He lost against Davis in 2022.

—Monica Potts, 538