Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

Ohio’s 2024 map is set, and it will be the same congressional district map as 2022. But the path Ohio took to this outcome was anything but straightforward. In November 2021, the Republican-controlled state government enacted a map where the GOP might have won as many as 13 of the state’s 15 districts. But in January 2022, the Ohio Supreme Court struck down the map as a partisan gerrymander, placing the map in the hands of the Ohio Redistricting Commission. With a 5-2 edge on the board, Republicans passed a second map in March 2022 that still gave the GOP a good chance of capturing at least 10 districts, if not more. Although the state’s high court ruled that this map was also unconstitutional in July 2022, by then the timeline for the case left the second map in place for the 2022 elections, in which Republicans won 10 of the state’s House seats.

The same map will now be used in 2024, too, after the Ohio Supreme Court dismissed legal challenges to the map in September. The plaintiffs who opposed the map had themselves sought a dismissal because they were less likely to have success before the state’s high court after the 2022 midterms, when Republicans captured a firmer majority with the retirement of Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who’d ruled against the state’s maps. If the mapmaking process had reopened for 2024, Republicans may have drawn lines even more favorable to the GOP. Under Ohio law, a map passed without bipartisan support can only remain in effect for two election cycles instead of a full decade, so because no Democrats supported the map currently in use, it will remain in effect through the 2024 election and then need to be redrawn before the 2026 election.

Before then, however, the state’s redistricting process could change due to a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment that proponents aim to put on the November 2024 ballot. The proposal would implement a 15-member commission made up of Republicans, Democrats and independents, with bans against the participation of recent officeholders, lobbyists or party officials. The amendment also includes measures against partisan gerrymandering.

Litigation over racial gerrymandering claims could result in South Carolina having to redraw part of its congressional map, which the GOP-controlled state government implemented in early 2022. Civil rights groups sued over the lines, arguing that the 1st, 2nd and 5th congressional districts constituted racial gerrymanders intended to discriminate against Black voters. In January, a panel of federal judges rejected the plaintiff’s claims regarding the 2nd and 5th districts, but struck down the 1st District as a racial gerrymander. The court ruled that in redrawing the seat, which had been competitive under the old lines, Republican mapmakers had impermissibly reduced the influence of Black voters in the Charleston area by moving many into the plurality-Black 6th District, which runs from Columbia to Charleston.

Whether this legal challenge will force the state to adjust its districts remains to be seen, however. In May, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, and oral arguments will start in mid-October. One potential wrinkle is the role of Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, a longtime powerbroker on Capitol Hill and leader in his state party. A ProPublica investigation found that Clyburn’s team had close contact with GOP officials during redistricting, and that his desire for additional Black voters to be added to his 6th District seat, which had lost substantial population over the past decade, potentially played a role in some of Republican mapping decisions.

Texas’s congressional map faces a number of legal challenges that federal courts have consolidated into one broader lawsuit. The core complaint centers on allegations that the GOP-controlled Texas legislature diluted Latino voter strength in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The plaintiffs claim mapmakers failed to add more seats with a majority Latino citizen voting-age population despite Latinos’ significant contribution to the state’s population growth and the state’s two-seat gain in reapportionment. Additionally, they accuse the mapmakers of weakening Latino voting strength in Texas’s 15th District, which the GOP flipped in the 2022 midterms.

The federal lower court has not proceeded with the case, however, in part because of delays regarding disputes over access to documents by legislators and other relevant parties. This has affected the process of discovery, which allows each side in a case to gather information about the evidence that will be presented at trial. As a result, it’s difficult to say how long it will be until this case moves forward. Considering Texas’s candidate filing deadline for its 2024 congressional primaries is Dec. 11, it’s very unlikely this case will be resolved before the next election cycle is fully underway.

Utah’s congressional map may need to be redrawn as well if a lawsuit currently before the Utah Supreme Court is successful.

In 2021, the Republican-controlled legislature drew a map that split Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County among all four of Utah’s congressional districts — a technique known as “cracking.” The lawsuit claims that this is a partisan gerrymander that violates the state constitution. Plaintiffs are also arguing that the legislature unconstitutionally defied the will of the people in 2020 when it watered down an anti-gerrymandering ballot measure that voters passed in 2018.

The Utah Supreme Court heard initial arguments in the case in July and have since asked for more arguments from both sides. But it’s unknown when the next round of arguments will be or when the court will rule. If the lawsuit is successful, it could result in Democrats picking up one seat in Utah, since any district anchored around the Salt Lake City area is likely to lean blue.