Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

On Thursday, a federal judge struck down Georgia’s congressional map, saying that it violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the political power of Black voters. The state has until Dec. 8 to draw a new map that adds an additional Black-opportunity seat in west metro Atlanta — although the state will likely try to appeal the decision.

Georgia currently has nine Republican representatives and five Democratic representatives, but it’s possible that this decision (if it holds up) could lead to Democrats flipping one of those Republican-held seats. But it’s also possible that Republicans in the Georgia legislature will comply with the judge’s order while also dismantling the safely blue 7th District, the one Democratic district in Georgia that is not predominantly Black. In this case, the partisan composition of the state’s congressional delegation would stay the same.

On Wednesday, the North Carolina state House passed a new congressional map for the Tar Heel State. Since the map had already passed the state Senate on Tuesday, it is now law. (In North Carolina, the governor has no veto power over redistricting.)

The map is an amended version of Proposal CCJ-1, the less aggressively gerrymandered of the two proposals unveiled by Republicans last week. But it is still heavily skewed toward the GOP: It creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat in a state that former President Donald Trump carried just 50 percent to 49 percent in 2020. Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson have now been placed in reliably red seats, meaning Republicans will almost certainly pick up three House seats as a result of this map. They could even flip a fourth, Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s 1st District, which this map makes more competitive.

Democrats will very probably sue over the new map, but they may not have much luck. Both the U.S. Supreme Court and, more recently, the North Carolina Supreme Court have said that they will not consider partisan gerrymandering claims. If the map is going to be struck down, advocates will have to prove it is a racial gerrymander.

On Wednesday, North Carolina Republicans released two proposed congressional maps for the 2024 cycle, both of which strongly favor the GOP and would allow the party to flip three or four House seats from Democrats.

North Carolina’s congressional delegation currently consists of seven Republicans and seven Democrats, but the first proposed map creates 10 reliably Republican seats, three reliably Democratic seats and one competitive seat. The second proposal is even more aggressive, creating 11 Republican-leaning districts and three Democratic-leaning ones.

Both maps would likely doom the reelection chances of Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson. The first proposal would also make it harder, though not impossible, for Democratic Rep. Don Davis to win reelection, moving his district from one that voted for President Biden by 7 percentage points to one that voted for Biden by just 2. The second proposal would merge Davis and Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee into the same safely Democratic seat (the 1st District), so one of them would have to retire or lose in a primary.

The North Carolina legislature will discuss these proposals in committee on Thursday, but it’s unclear when they will be voted upon or which plan (if either) will eventually be enacted. In North Carolina, the governor does not have veto power over redistricting maps, so the Republican-controlled Senate and House will have free rein to pass whichever map they can agree on. Democrats may sue over the eventual map, however, especially if the legislature picks the more aggressive proposal. That map dilutes the share of the Black voting age population in the 1st District from 41 percent to 39 percent and could be vulnerable to a legal challenge under the Voting Rights Act.

On Thursday, the lower federal court overseeing Alabama’s redistricting litigation chose a remedial congressional map that the state will use in the 2024 election — and probably beyond. Under the new lines, the 2nd District’s population will have a voting-age population that is about 49 percent Black. Alabama has deeply polarized voting patterns by race — white voters vote solidly Republican and Black voters overwhelmingly Democratic — so the new 2nd District would have backed President Biden by about 12 percentage points in 2020. As a result, the new map is likely to result in the election of a second Democrat from Alabama.

The court had previously rejected the lines that Alabama used in the 2022 election, which had one majority-Black and heavily Democratic seat and six majority-white and solidly Republican seats. In its ruling, the court said the map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the influence of Black voters. Alabama appealed the case to the Supreme Court, but the high court ruled against the state in June, which compelled Alabama to draw a new map. The state legislature came up with new lines, but the lower federal court also struck down that map, which did not create a second district with a majority-Black (or nearly majority) population. In response, the lower federal court ordered a special master to draw remedial map options, from which the court selected the final new district lines.

With a new map, incumbents and prospective candidates will start making decisions about their electoral futures. Beyond the new 2nd District, the map also may precipitate a member-versus-member primary between Republican Reps. Jerry Carl (of the current 1st District) and Barry Moore (current 2nd District) in the new, deep-red 1st District. Carl, who presently represents more of the new district, looks set to seek reelection, while Moore has said he’s leaning toward a run as well.