Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
The second-biggest news of today here at 538 — after these primaries, natch — was the launch of our 2024 presidential forecast model. Our podcast host Galen Druke sat down with Editorial Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about what goes into the model and what it says is the most likely outcome in November:
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Welcome to 538's live blog of the South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada primaries! The major action tonight is all on the GOP side, where we're tracking competitive primaries for U.S. House seats, a Nevada Senate seat and North Dakota's governor's mansion. Here's a quick rundown of what to expect.
First polls close South Carolina at 7 p.m. Eastern, where tonight's GOP primaries are tantamount to election in three solidly red seats. Next up is Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern and voters will decide which Republican will try to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Jared Golden in a red-leaning district. Polls will also close at 8 p.m. Eastern in most of North Dakota, where the GOP primaries will effectively determine the state's next governor and at-large U.S. representative.
Rounding out the evening, Nevada polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern. Republicans in the Silver State will choose their fighters to take on Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in the state's battleground Senate election, along with three House districts that they're hoping to flip from blue to red this fall.
Keep this page open for live updates and analysis on these races and others up and down the ballot!
—Tia Yang, 538
