Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.
June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.
Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
In Nevada's 4th District, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is leading the GOP primary, 51 to 42 percent, over Air Force veteran David Flippo, with a little less than half the expected vote counted. Lee, a former Democrat, has an endorsement from Trump. Either would be an underdog against Horsford, who weathered targeted races in 2020 and 2022.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
National Republicans are extremely cool on Nevada's three competitive House races this cycle, and I expect that won’t change after tonight's results in the GOP primaries. To the extent there was hopefulness around any of the candidates, it was Marty O'Donnell in the 3rd District and Flemming Larsen in the 1st District, who are both wealthy and have the capacity to self-fund campaigns. But neither man looks like they're going win at this point, leaving the GOP with a retread candidate in the 1st District and an untested conservative commentator in the 3rd District.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Fun fact: Nevada's state legislature is 60 percent women, making it the state with the greatest share of female representation at that level in the country. (Next is Arizona, with 51 percent.) Nevada's congressional delegation is also majority women. Both of their senators are women, and two of their four representatives are women. All are Democrats. As Nathaniel just mentioned, Rosen, one of the female senators in Nevada, will face Brown in November, in what is expected to be a close race.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
As we wrote earlier, Nevada's 3rd congressional district is likely to be one of the most competitive races in the state this fall, with 7 candidates vying to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this competitive district in the suburbs south of Las Vegas. With 79 percent of the expected vote reported, Johnson, a think-tank founder and policy analyst, has an early lead with 31 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP. Second is Schwartz, with 24 percent of the vote. Schwartz has been running in, and losing, Republican primaries in Nevada since 2012 — most recently a 2022 bid for lieutenant governor. Brian Nadell, who is on our list of anti-abortion candidates, is way behind, with 1 percent of the vote.
—Monica Potts, 538
