South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Nancy Mace, Sam Brown win

Democrats nearly won a safely Republican congressional seat.

June 11 was another packed primary day, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weighed in on who will make the ballot this fall. We had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries on Tuesday, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace's Trumpian pivot didn't cost her, as she handily fended off an establishment-aligned primary challenger. Fellow incumbent Rep. William Timmons, who was looking vulnerable after an infidelity scandal, also came out ahead in a closer race against his right-wing challenger. In North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Julie Fedorchak became the first non-incumbent woman this cycle to win a GOP primary for a safely red seat. In Nevada, Republican voters chose Sam Brown as their candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall.

Finally, a special election is set to give House Republicans one more seat of breathing room, as voters in Ohio's 6th District filled the seat vacated by Rep. Bill Johnson's departure in January — though not without some unexpected suspense.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


That’s a wrap!

Well, it’s unclear when we’re going to know the winners in the last few Nevada races, so we’re going to call it a night. Here’s a roundup of what happened in June 11’s key races:

- In the special election in Ohio’s 6th District, Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli defeated Democratic Air Force veteran Michael Kripchak, but by a shockingly narrow margin (9 points). Trump won this district by 29 points, so Democratic enthusiasm was really high here.
- In South Carolina’s 1st District, Republican Rep. Nancy Mace survived her second straight contested GOP primary as an incumbent, and by a much more comfortable margin than two years ago. Mace will face businessman Michael Moore (no, not that one) in the general election, where she’ll be the heavy favorite.
- In South Carolina’s 3rd District, the Republican primary is going to a runoff, with the top two candidates — Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns and Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, who finished neck-and-neck — facing off again in two weeks.
- In South Carolina’s 4th District, Rep. William Timmons barely beat back a strong primary challenge from tea party Republican state Rep. Adam Morgan.
- Up north in Maine’s 2nd District, former NASCAR driver and current state Rep. Austin Theriault easily clinched the GOP nomination over his colleague Michael Soboleski. Now Theriault will race against Democrat Jared Golden, the Blue Dog who’s held this seat since 2018.
- In North Dakota, the Republican primary for governor was projected early, with Rep. Kelly Armstrong pulling quickly ahead of Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller. And the contested GOP primary for the state’s open at-large congressional district was projected for Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak.
- For U.S. Senate in Nevada, Army veteran Sam Brown scored an easy win in the Republican primary. He’ll face Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall in what will be one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.

Finally, here’s the status of the three unprojected races in Nevada.

- Nevada’s 1st District looks like it will be a rematch, with 2022 nominee Mark Robertson leading the Republican primary for the right to once again face incumbent Democratic Rep. Dina Titus. However, Flemming Larsen could still win the GOP nomination too.
- In the crowded Republican primary in Nevada’s 3rd, conservative columnist Drew Johnson has a narrow lead over former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz. "Halo" composer Marty O’Donnell, the establishment pick, is in a surprising third place.
- In Nevada’s 4th, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee appears to have the inside track over Air Force veteran David Flippo.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers, 538; and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Final thought: Anti-abortion candidates win in deep-red districts

Tracking anti-abortion candidates again in tonight's primaries, I'm thinking about how some of these races will shape the issue this fall. In deep-red districts, Republican voters often choose from a slate of anti-abortion candidates. But many of their extreme positions are unpopular overall, and that could make a difference in competitive races. That may be why candidates that are less extreme on the issue are winning in primaries like Nevada's Senate race — Brown has championed a more moderate position, and his wife has opened up about an abortion she had when she was younger. Likewise, the anti-abortion candidate in Nevada's battleground 3rd District is far behind. The issue might not always rank at the top for voters in surveys, but the GOP seems willing to be a bit more moderate in races where an extreme anti-abortion candidate could turn voters off.

—Monica Potts, 538


Final thought: Did Republican women turn a corner?

As we've been documenting this primary cycle, the GOP is badly trailing Democrats when it comes to endorsing and nominating women in primaries, especially primaries where they can win in November. Tonight marked a milestone for the GOP, with Fedorchak — the projected winner in North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District — becoming the first non-incumbent Republican women to win an open primary for a safe red seat.

GOP women saw another, albeit smaller, victory with Biggs advancing to a runoff in South Carolina's 3rd. That said, her competitor, Burns, has Trump's endorsement, which doesn't bode well for her. All told, tonight's races will do little to add more women to the GOP conference.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor



Final thought: Dreaming of Appalachia

I'm still struck by what we saw go down in Ohio's 6th District tonight. A sleepy special in such heavily Republican territory — we're talking a very white, rural, blue collar district with vanishingly few college graduates — should not have that kind of result absent something larger going on underneath the surface. I'll be interested to see what Ohio guru Kyle Kondik writes in the coming days about the results we've seen, and as I mentioned earlier, I want to see if Democrats turn in another big overperformance in Colorado later this month. And not for nothing, but Biden's actually been polling decently in Ohio relative to his numbers elsewhere? So perhaps there's something to Scranton Joe's resilience in the Rust Belt. We'll see!

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Women we're watching tonight: Will Fedorchak be the first non-incumbent woman nominated in a safe red seat?

According to our recent analysis of primaries this cycle through May 21, 41 percent of Democrats' nominees (that is, primary winners) for House, Senate and governor are women, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans'. That's a big difference. To date, no non-incumbent Republican women have won a nomination for a safe Republican seat in November — and there were certainly plenty of opportunities, given a high number of GOP (and overall) retirements this year. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans thus far, and doing so in places where their chances are better in November.

Tonight there is at least one Republican woman with a good shot at bucking that trend and effectively claiming a safe red seat in November: North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who's running for the state's open at-large House seat. In addition to endorsements from several of the women's groups we're tracking (E-PAC, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women), she has Trump's endorsement, too.

Another Republican primary of note features two women, and GOP women's groups, going head-to-head: In South Carolina's 1st District, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace faces several challengers, but her most notable opponent is former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton. Templeton is endorsed by Winning for Women, while Mace is endorsed by VIEW PAC (and notably, Trump). It's the first race we've seen so far in this season where two of the women's groups we're tracking are actively endorsing against each other.

On the Democratic side, three incumbent Democratic women in Nevada — Sen. Jacky Rosen, Rep. Susie Lee and Rep. Dina Titus — should cruise to victory with no serious competition in their primaries today, but they'll be watching today's GOP primaries to see which Republicans they'll face in November, when their races could be close, as Geoffrey wrote in 538's primary preview.

Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor