South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race

What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: February 24, 2024, 4:55 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.

Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Geoffrey Skelley Image
ByGeoffrey Skelley
Feb 24, 2024, 8:04 PM EST

Trump leads as expected as we get more votes

Trump is projected to win tonight, and, as expected, his edge is showing up as we get actual returns from around South Carolina. With 24 percent of the expected vote reporting, he leads Haley by 15 points, 57 percent to 42 percent. We have nearly all the vote in from three counties, but only one especially sizable one: Berkeley County, which sits next door to Charleston. There, Trump leads by 17 points, 58 percent to 41 percent. In trying to gauge just how strong that is for Trump relative to 2016, it's a tad bit worse than the combined 62 percent vote share that Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson collected in the county back then. Still, it points to the all-but-certain outcome of a Trump victory tonight.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Feb 24, 2024, 8:01 PM EST

Haley’s taking a while to speak …

Haley still hasn’t come out to address supporters yet. This is probably reading too much into it, but the longer she waits, the more I wonder if she is going to drop out. After New Hampshire, she spoke almost immediately.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Feb 24, 2024, 7:48 PM EST

Other candidates will be on the ballot, but Haley might have advantage

That's true, Nathaniel. But maybe Haley is hoping that actively campaigning, and still having a campaign apparatus running, will give her an advantage over the other also-rans.

—Monica Potts, 538

G. Elliott Morris Image
ByG. Elliott Morris
Feb 24, 2024, 7:48 PM EST

Is Trump is heading for a delegate sweep?

Remember that the primary is ultimately all about the delegates candidates win to vote for them at the RNC in July. In the delegate math tonight, Trump is coming out way ahead. South Carolina awards delegates in two sets: 29 are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote (which are all going to Trump tonight) and the remaining 21 are split equally between the remaining 7 congressional districts. According to ABC's delegate projections Trump has already won 38 delegates tonight, with 12 left to assign in 4 more districts. But if Trump is heading for a 30-point margin statewide, it's unlikely Haley will win any of those that remain.

Our delegate benchmarks model had Haley needing all 50 tonight to be on track for the GOP nomination. It is her home state, after all.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538