Why Bonds' Record Ball Won't Be Worth Millions

Aug. 8, 2007 Special to ABCNEWS.com — -- Sports memorabilia collectors aren't exactly looking ahead with rabid enthusiasm to Barry Bonds' record 756th home run ball hitting the auction market.

Now that Bonds has passed Henry Aaron's career home run mark, memorabilia dealers are resigned to the reality that the historic ball won't be worth nearly what they would have expected a few years ago. And steroid suspicions, which have cast a pall over the accomplishments of the recent crop of home run hitters, are only part of the story.

A market that was already bubbling over thanks to the dizzying pre-steroids hype that surrounded the Mark McGwire-Sammy Sosa chase of Roger Maris' single season home run record in 1998 has crash-landed with a loud thump.

The $3 million that McGwire's 70th home run ball fetched that year is now estimated at less than a million. The fastball that Bonds smashed over the fence in right center field at AT&T Park for career homer No. 756 figures to go for about $500,000, according to auction house experts. That's far less than what they would have guessed a few years ago, not to mention $150,000 below what Aaron's 755th went for in the mid-'90s.

The Bonds ball was retrieved by Matt Murphy, a 22-year-old from Queens, New York. Experts say that if he wants to make maximum bank on it, the time to sell is now. As Bonds' retirement nears, speculation will rest on what number homer will be his last. And that ultimate record ball will hold the most long term value, just as Aaron's 755th homerun ball outweighs his 715th, the one that broke Babe Ruth's record.

"When fans figure out it'll end at say, 789, that's the ball to own," says Doug Allen of Mastro Auctions, the biggest sports auction house in the U.S. The expected pursuit of Bonds' record by Alex Rodriguez, according to Allen, isn't a big factor in the value of the 756th ball right now, given that Rodriguez is still 256 homers away. But as he creeps closer over the next few seasons, the Bonds' ball could drop in value. All the more reason for Murphy to get the ball to the highest bidder immediately.