Seasonal hiring outlook looks a bit more hopeful

— -- Holiday hiring could perk up a lackluster job market, with some analysts and employers expecting seasonal payrolls to increase slightly more than projected.

Employers added 80,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department said last week. That's slightly less than anticipated, though estimated gains for August and September were revised upward by 102,000. More than 150,000 monthly additions are needed to noticeably bring down the jobless rate, now 9%.

Retailers added 17,800 jobs last month and a monthly average of 16,500 so far this year.

The National Retail Federation has not changed its early October forecast that retailers will hire about 490,000 mostly part-time seasonal workers this year, about the same as last year. It expects holiday sales to increase by 2.8%, less than last year's 5.2% jump.

Some are more optimistic. Research firm Customer Growth Partners recently predicted holiday sales will increase 6.5% on growth in disposable income, a decline in household debt and new fashions that are drawing customers to apparel stores. That will prompt a slight increase in hiring over last year, says President Craig Johnson.

IHS Global Insight, an economic research firm, estimates holiday sales will rise 4% this year.

J.C. Penney spokesman Tim Lyons says the department store chain is hiring 37,000 seasonal workers, up from its estimate of 35,000 last month and 30,000 holiday hires in 2010. "We want to make sure we have adequate coverage for the heavier traffic," Lyons says.

TeleTech, which handles call-center customer service and marketing for retailers and technology makers, is hiring 4,400 seasonal workers, up 60% over last year. Chief Marketing Officer Mark Grindeland says the tepid holiday hiring forecast by many retailers could be due in part to a shift in call-center duties to contractors such as TeleTech.

"Companies cut costs about as much as they can," Grindeland says. "What they all realize is that they have to grow revenue and create a great customer experience."

Macy's and Kohl's have said they plan to increase holiday hiring by about 5%, while Target says it will hire slightly more than the 92,000 seasonal workers it added last year. Wal-Mart and TJX, which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, say holiday employment will be in line with 2010.

Some are cautious. Toys R Us and Best Buy say holiday hiring will fall 12% and 37%, respectively.

John Challenger, head of outplacement firm Challenger Gray and Christmas, says some retailers are increasing existing workers' hours to avoid the costs of recruiting and training new employees amid economic uncertainty.

FedEx recently said it's hiring 20,000 workers to deliver holiday packages, up 18% from last year, mostly because of a surge in online orders. UPS is expected to announce Monday that it will hire about 50,000 seasonal employees, roughly the same as last year.