POLL: Confidence Is Low and Steady

Oct. 16, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence continues to hover in negative double digits, above its recent lows but below its recent average — with little optimism about the economy's direction.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week and in negative double digits for three months, its longest low stretch in more than a year. While the CCI has improved since bottoming out in mid-August at -20, that recovery looks to have stalled.

In a separate, monthly measure of expectations, just 11 percent think the economy is improving, similar to last month and about half the long-term average. Five times as many think the economy's getting worse; it's been around that since spring.

INDEX — The ABC/Post CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, personal finances and the buying climate. This week 36 percent say it's a good time to buy things and the same number rate the economy positively; both have been stable the past month. More, 59 percent, say their personal finances are good; that's up six points since its 2007 low point of 53 percent in mid-August.

EXPECTATIONS — Last month optimism reached its lowest point in nearly 15 years, with only eight percent saying the economy was getting better. At 11 percent this month, it's essentially the same.

Fifty-five percent say the economy is worsening, near its 2007 high of 57 percent two months ago and up from last month's 49 percent. The number of pessimists currently is 16 points higher than its long-term average, 39 percent, in polls since March 1981.

Optimists haven't outnumbered pessimists since January 2004.

TREND — Consumer confidence has held steady in a three-point range for the last four weeks. At -13 it's up seven points since reaching its 2007 low of -20 on Aug. 19, when the CCI took an historic nine-point one-week tumble. Confidence has been in negative double digits since Aug. 12, a 10-week stretch not seen since July to October 2006.