2008 predictions for the S&P 500
— -- Bull talk
The most bullish '08 forecast comes from Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners. His thesis: We won't get a recession. Therefore, any weakness in profit growth will be offset by a swelling of P-E ratios. The bottom line: With the Fed lowering rates, investors will be willing to pay more for every $1 of corporate earnings.His prediction:1680
Bear talk
The most conservative forecast comes from Abhijit Chakrabortti of Morgan Stanley. His thesis: Profit growth estimates are way too high. Pesky inflation pressures will make it tougher for the Fed to lower rates aggressively. Add to that negative news on the global growth story. The bottom line: Stock drivers stall out. His prediction:1520
The in-betweens
1675 is the prediction from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs; and Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1625 is the prediction of Tom McManus, Banc of America Securities
1590 is the prediction from Thomas Lee, JPMorgan Chase; and Hugh Johnson, Johnson Illington Advisors
1580 is the prediction from Rod Smith, Wachovia Securities
1575 is the prediction from Stuart Freeman, A.G. Edwards
1525* is the prediction from Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
The index broke the 7-year-old record high in May. It set nine records before topping out at 1565.15 on Oct. 9.
* = 12-month target as of Dec. 3.
Investment ideas for the new year
•Buy markets in developed countries But if you must chase a "hot" market, Brazil is a better bet than China, Russia or India. Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
•Overweight U.S. stocks vs. bonds Why? Offer better value — if there is no recession. Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs
