Home sales in 2008 likely to be slowest in a decade

WASHINGTON -- U.S. home sales in 2008 are expected to be the worst in a decade, November data confirmed Tuesday, and there appears to be no quick turnaround coming next year.

Existing home sales plunged to a rate of 4.49 million last month, down 8.6% from October, and worse than economists predicted. Total sales, not calculated as an annual rate, fell 17% in November from a year earlier to 322,000, the National Association of Realtors said.

The median sales price tumbled 13% to $181,300, the largest decline since record-keeping began 40 years ago.

The deteriorating economy makes the timing of any recovery in sales a moving target. While sales are growing in foreclosure-plagued areas like Las Vegas and Los Angeles, most of the country is still sinking.

And though mortgage rates dropped to nearly 5% last week, providing an attractive opportunity for borrowers to refinance, real estate agents say it's too early to tell how much of a sales boost low rates will provide.

"The interest rates aren't helping as much as we had hoped," said Russ Graber, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Des Moines. "My guess is you're going to see more refinancing than people moving. I don't think people are going to want to put on more debt."

Making matters worse, lending standards remain tight, the market remains flooded with unsold properties and job losses are mounting.

"Once you get to a point where the economy stops contracting, then those lower mortgage rates could have some traction," said IHS Global Insight economist Brian Bethune.

On the more optimistic side, other analysts hope the big drop in mortgage rates will prop up sales early next year.

And while 45% of existing home sales are now foreclosures and other distressed properties, there is a silver lining, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

"The quicker those properties get into steadier hands at prices that are more realistic, the sooner the economy gets back to some kind of health," he said.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said November sales of newly built homes fell 2.9% from October to a pace of 407,000 units, the slowest rate in nearly 18 years. The median price of a new home sold in November was $220,400, a drop of 11.5% from the sales price a year ago and the biggest year-over-year price decline since March.