Federal report: Carbon pollution to grow by 40%

WASHINGTON -- The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide seeping into the atmosphere will increase by nearly 40% worldwide by 2030 if ways are not found to require mandatory emission reductions, a U.S. government report said Wednesday.

The Energy Information Administration said world energy consumption is expected to grow by 44% over the next two decades as the global economy recovers and continues to expand. The biggest increases in energy use will come from economically developing countries such as China and India.

Substantial growth is expected in the use of renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind and solar, the report said. But it also said overall growth in demand will require continued reliance on fossil fuels, especially oil and coal.

As a result, the analysis predicted a steady increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that scientists say threatens a serious warming of the Earth later this century. Between now and 2030, Wednesday's report said, global carbon dioxide pollution is expected to increase by 39%. That translates to 33 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40 billion metric tons by 2030, compared to 29 billion metric tons in 2006, the report said.

The EIA report emphasized that its analysis is based on current regulatory and legal requirements and does not assume enactment of laws or international treaties requiring reductions in greenhouse gases. Any such action would force shifts away from fossil fuels and less carbon pollution being released.

Congress is considering legislation that would reduce greenhouse gases by 17% by 2020 and about 80% by mid-century. President Obama has called for mandatory limits on greenhouse gases. An international conference is scheduled for December to try to work out a treaty requiring such emission reductions.

But the EIA analysis provides an indication of how difficult such reductions might be to achieve given the expected increase in future energy growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels without some international, mandatory action to address climate change.