Economic indicators suggest 'slow recovery this autumn'

NEW YORK -- More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.

It was the third straight monthly increase for the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year.

The index rose 0.7% last month, more than most economists exected.

The group also said activity in the six-month period through June rose 2%. The index is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months.

If these conditions continue, "expect a slow recovery this autumn," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.

Seven of the 10 indicators rose in June, including building permits, stock prices, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and positive readings on jobs.

The biggest gainer was the "interest rate spread." That's the difference between yields on 10-year Treasurys and the federal funds rate, at which banks lend to one another, which is at a record low near zero. A big difference between the two is viewed as positive because investors are willing to lend for longer periods.

The Conference Board said that consumer expectations, manufacturers' orders for capital goods and the real money supply weighed down the forecast last month.