Holiday shopping is tricky to predict; retailers trim orders

— -- Retailers are bracing for another weak holiday season — or not.

A recent survey by the retail trade publication RIS News showed only one in six retailers believe this holiday season will be worse than last, but more than 85% said "weak customer demand" will be their biggest challenge. Consumer insights firm BIGresearch reports nearly a third of consumers say they plan to spend less than last year, and less than 3% say they'll spend more.

Store owners don't really know what to expect — and had no clearer picture months ago when they had to place most holiday orders. Many retailers, hard hit when they resorted to heavy discounting to clear shelves last year, have very lean inventories planned for the season, says Kevin Sterneckert, director of retail research for AMR Research, which consults for many retailers. That could lead to even more problems and lower sales.

"This holiday could represent very strong demand," says Sterneckert. "If retailers did not plan for strong demand, as many have not, they will be left with empty shelves and self-fulfill a very tough season."

Thirty percent of 650 retailers and consultants Sterneckert polled predicted "most retailers will run out of key items" for the holiday season. It could wind up as a season where the strong get stronger and the weak are hardest hit, he says.

"Every retailer is having their own experience: Some are better off than others, and some are having a tougher time than others," says Dan Butler, the National Retail Federation's vice president of retail operations. "They're not going to want to overstock, but they're not going to go lean, either, and not hit their sales targets."

Butler says some retailers, faced with depleted inventory, are able to get more merchandise from manufacturers that have excess inventory or find other sources. But once apparel is gone, it's often gone. And NRF is predicting that sales will improve as the year goes on.

"Retailers are slowly recovering," says Butler. But BIGresearch says conservative may be the way to go as its new data show consumers will be especially cost conscious — they just won't buy unless the price is right. BIGresearch senior analyst Pam Goodfellow says consumers will be doing more comparison shopping and waiting for sales and promotions to make the most of their holiday budgets. Record numbers could flock to Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, she says.