Five ways to help control your holiday spending

— -- After a holiday season last year that saw some of the deepest pre-Christmas price cutting in decades, the savvy shopper might think it best to wait until the last minute to scoop up bargains this year.

But there's considerable evidence that's neither a smart move for those seeking discounts nor the best way to stay on budget.

Consumers may have gotten addicted to deep discounting after the deals they got last year, but retailers have largely learned their lesson. They are doing everything they can to avoid a repeat of the hangovers that showed up in their earnings reports. Stores have pared inventories, lowered their starting prices and added lower-cost products to their lineups.

The major retailers reporting sales this month showed lackluster August sales, but the Commerce Department numbers out Tuesday showed an uptick in overall retail sales. So shoppers scanning the aisles for half-price sales in December are likely to be disappointed unless consumer confidence and spending take another dramatic dip.

No one knows yet for sure what the holiday season will bring for retailers, but retail strategist John Long predicts early discounting that will level off closer to the holiday.

"By offering better value and sharper initial pricing, there will be less of a need for retailers to go to 60% to 80% off," says Long, a partner at retail consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates. "There will be discounting earlier, but you won't see the deep discounting."

Kevin Sterneckert, director of retail research for consulting firm AMR Research, says retailers are coming up with new ways to avoid price slashing. He cites the example of Sears, which has announced that its salespeople will search the Web and match competitors' prices. Sears isn't "discounting or marking down in the traditional sense," he says, but taking a "a very different retail approach."

But what if you buy a seemingly well-priced gift in September, and the retailer knocks $100 off the price in December?