Bank of England is set to cut interest rates despite potential new inflation worries

LONDON -- The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75% on Thursday after inflation across the U.K. fell significantly, relieving some pressure on borrowers who have faced elevated mortgage and loan costs.

The bank said eight of the nine members of its rate-setting panel backed the reduction — the second in three months — while one opted to keep borrowing costs on hold. The latest cut comes after inflation in the U.K. fell to an annual rate of 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2021.

Though inflation has fallen below the bank's target of 2%, Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that interest rates would not be falling too fast over coming months, partly because last week's budget measures from the new Labour government would likely see prices rise by more than they would otherwise have done.

“We need to make sure inflation stays close to target, so we can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” he said. “But if the economy evolves as we expect it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here.”

He added that it's very unlikely that interest rates will fall to the very low levels that persisted in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008. During the coronavirus pandemic, which erupted in early 2020, interest rates around the world fell to zero, or just above zero in the case of the Bank of England.

Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues built up and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.

As inflation rates have recently fallen from multi-decade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates later Thursday.

Economists have warned that worries about the future path of prices following last week's tax-raising budget from the new Labour government and the economic impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may limit the number of cuts next year.

“Even though interest rates have further to fall, the upward pressure on inflation from the budget and growing global risks, including possible new U.S. tariffs, could mean that policy is loosened more modestly than many anticipated," said Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.

The decision comes a week after Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could lead to higher inflation next year.

Rate-setters considered the budget measures during their deliberations and concluded they would likely boost growth by 0.75 percentage points and inflation by 0.5 percentage points over the coming year.

The rate decision also comes a day after Trump was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election. He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the U.S. and globally, thereby prompting Bank of England policymakers to keep interest rates higher than initially planned.

Bailey said it was “not useful or wise to enter into speculation” about what policies might be introduced by the incoming Trump administration and that the Bank of England only factors in policies that have already been announced when it compiles its economic projections.