2022 Oscars predictions: Who should win -- and who will win

Finally we'll get answers.

On Sunday, ABC will air the long-awaited 94th annual Academy Awards in a fully live, no-Zoom ceremony.

Controversy swirls around a new fan favorite vote, done through Twitter and the Academy website, with 10 nominees -- "Army of the Dead," "Cinderella," "Dune," "Malignant," "Minamata," "The Power of the Dog," "Sing 2, "Spider-Man: No Way Home," "The Suicide Squad," and "tick, tick...BOOM!"

Should Spidey fail to grab this one, there will be fan hell to pay.

There are a few sure things ahead though. Jane Campion ("The Power of the Dog") will likely become only the third woman in 94 years to win best director. Expect "Dune" to sweep everything technical, with a hot race for best song between Billie Eilish ("No Time to Die") and "Encanto" maestro Lin Manuel Miranda ("Dos Oruguitas").

Here are my predictions about who should win -- and who will win -- in the essential categories most likely to pin Oscar audiences to their seats.

Best actor in a leading role

• Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos")
• Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")
• Andrew Garfield ("tick, tick. . . Boom!")
• Will Smith ("King Richard")
• Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")

SHOULD WIN: Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")

The British star of "Sherlock Holmes" is doing his finest work as a fictional American cowboy who tragically mistakes cruelty for being a real man. Hollywood is in awe of English thespians, as witnessed with Sir Anthony Hopkins snatching the gold last year for "The Father" when the smart money was on the late legend Chadwick Boseman ("Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom").

WILL WIN: Will Smith ("King Richard")

The OG "Fresh Price of Bel Air" waited until he was past 50 to take on the role that would really make Academy voters take notice. He found it in Richard Williams, the hard-driving dad of tennis champs Venus and Serena Williams. The movie may sandpaper off Richard’s rougher edges, but Smith delivers what is indisputably the performance of his life.

Best actress in a leading role

• Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")
• Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter")
• Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
• Nicole Kidman ("Being the Ricardos")
• Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")

SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter")

Along with Penélope Cruz, Colman has the disadvantage of not starring in a biopic, a genre Oscar falls for repeatedly, giving Chastain, Kidman (as Lucille Ball) and Stewart (as Princess Diana) the edge. Never mind that Colman is astounding in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s uncompromising study of a woman haunted by her perceived failures as a wife and mother of two.

WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

Only a few weeks ago, the best actress race was the toughest to predict. Then, Chastain won prizes from SAG and Critics Choice for a dynamite portrayal out to redeem disgraced televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker from her reputation as a cultural joke in clownish eye makeup. Chastain also produced the film, which took almost a decade to come to fruition. How do you resist that kind of passion project? Short answer: You don’t.

Best actor in a supporting role

• Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
• Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
• Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")
• J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")
• Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")

SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")

In any other year, Kodi Smit-McPhee, 25, would be covered in Oscar glory for playing Peter, the androgynous medical student who locks horns with the bullying cowboy played by Benedict Cumberbatch. The Aussie actor played Nightcrawler in the "X-Men" franchise, but nothing prepares you for the quietly devastating performance he delivers here.

WILL WIN: Troy Kotsur ("CODA")

Can Kotsur, 53, join his "CODA" costar Marlee Matlin to become only the second deaf actor to win an acting Oscar? Bet on Matlin, who won for 1986’s "Children of a Lesser God," making room for Kotsur in the winner’s circle. In one unforgettable scene, he asks his hearing daughter to sing just for him, placing his hands on her throat to feel the vibrations of her vocal cords.

Best actress in a supporting role

• Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
• Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
• Judi Dench ("Belfast")
• Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog")
• Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")

SHOULD WIN: Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")

Only one actor in Steven Spielberg’s reimagining of the beloved musical scored an acting nod (sorry Rachel Zegler, Mike Faist and Rita Moreno). So it’s up to Afro-Latina dynamo Ariana DeBose to win for the team in the same role that won an Oscar for Moreno in 1962. Not an easy task since Moreno, in a newly created role, shares the screen with DeBose. No worries. DeBose sings, dances and acts with a transcendent beauty and strength that is all her own.

WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")

Sometimes it really is that simple.

Best picture

• "Belfast"
• "CODA"
• "Don’t Look Up"
• "Drive My Car"
• "Dune"
• "King Richard"
• "Licorice Pizza"
• "Nightmare Alley"
• "The Power of the Dog"
• "West Side Story"

SHOULD WIN: "The Power of the Dog"

Jane Campion’s Montana western boasts the most nominations (12) and the best reviews, but detractors insist that "The Power of the Dog" is easier to admire than love. Others outright hate it. Take "1883" star Sam Elliott who called out director Campion for the film’s "allusions to homosexuality," criticized the film's portrayal of the American West and described the film as a "piece of s---." Campion replied that Elliott was not a cowboy but an "actor." Ouch. Remember when 2005 Oscar frontrunner "Brokeback Mountain," about gay cowboys, lost to surprise winner "Crash"? It could happen again.

WILL WIN: "CODA"

Last week, this sentimental favorite won the top prize from the Producers Guild of America, which, in its 32-year history, has predicted the Oscar winner an amazing 22 times. That reminded everyone that this crowd-pleaser about the only hearing child of deaf parents pushes all the emotional buttons. Can the underdog beat the big "Dog"? It’ll be a close and exciting race.

The 94th Academy Awards will air Sunday, March 27, at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT live on ABC.