Hillary Clinton Looks Like the Democrat to Beat

Oct. 3, 2007 — -- For the first time Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., tops the 50 percent mark in support from Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Clinton's approval rating is 53 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 20 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a distant third at 13 percent.

Obama's campaign insists he is still very much in the race. But the candidate's wife, Michelle Obama, has indicated they are pinning their hopes on Iowa.

"If Barack does not win in Iowa it's just a dream," she said. "If we win Iowa we can move to the world as it should be."

In Iowa the race is still a dead heat, but nationally Obama seems to have a huge mountain to climb.

An Obama campaign strategist dismissed the significance of these latest poll numbers.

"You fellas have this tendency to want to call the election every single day," said David Axlerod. "And that's the reason you declared Howard Dean the nominee in October 4 years ago. Voters tend to make their decisions later."

But Clinton has also taken away a key psychological advantage Obama had enjoyed until now by edging him out in quarterly fundraising. For the third quarter she raised $22 million to Obama's $20 million.

Even though they dismissed fundraising shortfalls before, the Clinton campaign is now trumpeting its success. The headline on her campaign Web site is "Through the roof."

Both candidates have enough money to get their message out, but Clinton is looking more like the one to beat.

As political watchers remind us, though, anything can happen between now and next November.

"I would never count out Barack Obama," said David Yepsen from the Des Moines Register. "You don't take a guy with that kind of money and count him out. He has ups and downs. I would definitely not count him out. He's got plenty of time to turn this around."