The Iowa Effect: Making and Breaking Candidates

Aug. 18, 2007 — -- During the presidential campaign season, Iowa, site of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, takes center stage -- and candidates have been racking up the frequent flyer miles to the Hawkeye State in hopes of benefiting from "The Iowa Effect."

"'The Iowa Effect' is called the 'bounce,'" said David Yepsen, a columnist for The Des Moines Register. "A win in Iowa means the candidate gets a bounce of media attention and money going into later states."

It's why every four years the candidates make a bee line for the Iowa State Fair. They eat cotton candy, and judge prized heifers, in hopes of winning Iowans' votes. This weekend, even prospective Republican candidate Fred Thompson turned up, and he hasn't even announced his candidacy yet.

ABC News will host the first Democratic debate in Des Moines on Sunday. Find out when the "This Week" debate will air in your market by Clicking Here.

For the past eight presidential races -- for more than 30 years -- all but one of the major party nominees has won Iowa or the early primary state of New Hampshire, or both.

The lone exception was Bill Clinton, who bypassed Iowa in 1992. But this year, Clinton has more than made up for that, aggressively campaigning in Iowa on behalf of his wife.

"The smart money says whoever wins these Iowa caucuses is probably going to be the Democratic nominee," Time magazine's Mark Halperin said.

Winning isn't even the key in Iowa, a strong second place showing may work just as well.

Jimmy Carter is a prime example. In 1976, he was a Georgia governor flying under the radar and came in a distant second.

Politicians have learned from the likes of Carter. And this year, they're pulling out all the stops in Iowa.

"John Edwards has basically taken up residence in Iowa," Halperin said. "He might as well be running for governor. That gave him a big early lead, but the other candidates have pushed back hard."

Edwards still has time though. Iowa is the first state in a long circuit of political campaigning.