Iraqi History May Color Views of Election

Jan. 29, 2005 — -- When Iraqis go to the polls this weekend, Americans may sense a bold flowering of democracy in the desert. But no matter how well the vote goes, some Iraqis may sense something else -- déjà vu.

After decades of domination by the British, and centuries of rule by the Ottoman Turks and other interlopers, those Iraqis may just see another government being set up under the auspices of foreigners -- including "elected" governments of varying legitimacy, historians say.

"The problem is the United States has inherited a widespread view in the Middle East that, 'Outside powers come in and interfere with us,' " said Margaret MacMillan, professor of history at the University of Toronto and author of "Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World."

However, despite the inevitable historical baggage, several Iraq experts see few immediate alternatives to this weekend's election.

"We have to create a new government," said Phebe Marr, author of "The Modern History of Iraq" and a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "It has to have some modicum of legitimacy, and nobody's come up with a better method."

Iraqis on Sunday will be voting from among more than 7,000 candidates to elect a 275-member, transitional National Assembly. The assembly will be responsible for choosing a president and two deputies, who in turn will nominate a prime minister and other government ministers for approval by a full assembly vote.

The elected assembly also will be required to draft a constitution to be submitted for a public vote in the late fall. If Iraqi voters approve the constitution, elections for a permanent government will follow by the end of the year.

Gary Sick, a senior research scholar at Columbia University and former director of the Middle East Institute, sees a possible U.S. exit strategy in the making.

"From what I can read of the administration, they are quite aware of the fact that the people who wind up getting elected may not be that friendly to the United States, or at least the U.S. occupation," Sick said. If Americans are asked to leave Iraq, "It provides a legitimate and quite a respectable way to get out of the country."

But even there, historical precedent may cast a pall if the United States seeks to keep a military presence, as Britain once did for decades. America has built substantial military bases in Iraq, and Britain's earlier refusal to abandon similar outposts fed political instability, violence and revolt.

"I don't think, as far as I can tell, that anybody in Washington is paying much attention to that," Sick said. "That's what I see as the next big issue. And there is a historical precedent for that."

There also are concerns about fairness of the vote, because many people in predominantly Sunni Muslims areas may be unable or unwilling to go to the polls, and security at polling places may not be assured.