What caused the extreme flooding in Spain that killed more than 90 people?
The weather phenomenon responsible for the extreme rainfall and flooding in Valencia, Spain, isn't rare or even uncommon. It was also well forecasted in the days leading up to the storm.
The Mediterranean region, including parts of eastern Spain, is frequently affected by heavy rainfall and significant flash flooding events. This recent disaster saw a year's worth of rainfall in just eight hours. In September 2019, the same region saw 12 to 18 inches of rain in 48 hours.
What's responsible for these events is a weather system known as a cut-off low. This happens when a low-pressure area is separated from the primary airflow.
Cut-off lows are common and can happen at any time of the year, anywhere in the world. When there is an extended stretch of cloudy, damp, and dreary weather, this is often related to a cut-off low.
However, the slow-moving nature of a cut-off low can set the stage for devastating extreme rainfall events when it interacts with other favorable factors, like the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea and nearby mountains. Because it is slow-moving, it can quickly pound areas with relentless rounds of heavy rain, resulting in significant flooding.
In Spain, these weather events are often called a "gota fría," which translates to "cold drop." But that term doesn't tell the whole story. What happened in Valencia wasn't caused by a sudden cold blast sweeping across the region but by the unique characteristics of a cut-off low.
That's not to say that cold air in the atmosphere doesn't play a role in enhancing the precipitation. It does bring more frequent rounds of heavy rain. As the system pushes the colder air over the very warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea, it helps trigger and enhance areas of heavy rain.
Because the low-pressure system moves very slowly, it keeps sending waves of heavy rain over the same areas for an extended period, bringing extreme rainfall totals and catastrophic flash flooding.
The nearby mountains also likely enhanced the precipitation and impacts. Plus, the infrastructure in the Valencia region, like many municipalities, isn't built to handle this amount of rainfall. Add in all of those factors, and you get catastrophic flash flooding.
What role, if any, does climate change play in these extreme weather events?
Climate attribution science will look at how much worse the rain was because of human-caused emissions, but we know that human-amplified climate change is supercharging the water cycle, bringing heavier rainfall and related flood risks. More intense extreme rainfall events increase the frequency and scale of flash flooding as the influx of water is more than the infrastructure of many municipalities was built to handle.
According to the U.S. Government's Fifth National Climate Assessment, human-amplified climate change is contributing to increases in the frequency and intensity of the heaviest precipitation events. So, in a way, we are all making it rain more.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser