Climate and environment updates: Climate leaders call for major overhaul of summit

As world climate leaders meet in Azerbaijan at this year's climate conference, COP29, a new report warns that their efforts to curb climate change have "flatlined" since 2021.

Researchers from Climate Action Tracker, an independent project tracking government action on climate change, say their report demonstrates "a critical disconnect" between the impacts of climate change and political action to address it.

"Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021," the study says. "The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming."

The 2.7 degrees estimate is significantly higher than the 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels limit called for in the Paris Agreement. Scientists say the world must stay below 1.5 degrees to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change."

"We are clearly failing to bend the curve. As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent," Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics, the report's lead author, said.

Gonzales-Zuniga did, however, caution that the 2.7 degree metric was a median estimate and the actual warming number has a 50% chance of being above or below 2.7 degree Celsius.

"But our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of our projection being 3.0 degrees Celsius - or higher - and a 10% chance of being 3.6 degrees Celsius or higher, an absolutely catastrophic level of warming," she added.

The world's governments are currently developing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which happens every five years as a part of the Paris Agreement. NDCs are climate action plans showing countries' emissions reduction goals through 2035.

The Climate Action Tracker also calculated the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump's possible climate regulation rollbacks as laid out in Project 2025.

Researchers found that if the impact is limited to the U.S., warming could increase by 0.04 degrees Celsius. However, if other countries follow suit, there could be a much more significant negative impact.

"Clearly, we won't know the full impact of the U.S. elections until President-Elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the U.S. now that will be difficult to stop," Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said. "While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at a significant scale."

"The key issue is whether countries stick together and continue to move forward with action, a Trump rollback of U.S. policies, as damaging as it is, can be overcome," he added.

-ABC News Climate Unit's Kelly Livingston

After a yearslong deadlock, delegates at COP29, the U.N. global climate conference, have finally reached an agreement on international carbon market standards, a critical step in launching a global carbon market.

The new global carbon market would standardize the issuing, trading and redeeming of carbon credits. A carbon credit is a voucher representing a specific amount of greenhouse gas reduction or removal from the atmosphere. Individuals, businesses, organizations and countries can use carbon credits to offset an action that produces emissions -- for example, paying for tree planting to offset the emissions from a factory or an airplane flight.

Presently, carbon trading markets are run by various organizations with little to no regulation or universal standards. However, a U.N.-backed global carbon market would provide the financial and regulatory support of the international governing body.

U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said the new global carbon market will help countries implement their climate plans faster and cheaper, driving down emissions. Since this will be an open international market, companies, organizations and individuals could utilize the market to meet their voluntary climate targets, regardless of their nation’s participation.

A U.N.-backed global climate market would also bring significant financial benefits to the global market. Yalchin Rafiyev, COP29 lead negotiator, said this new market will be a game-changing tool that directs resources to the developing world and helps save up to $250 billion a year on climate plan implementation.

The International Emissions Trading Association, a nonprofit business group that supports global carbon markets, said that within a few years, the implementation of the U.N.-back carbon market not only has the potential to save the global economy billions of dollars per year, but could also cut approximately 5 billion metric tons of carbon output annually.

While a path has been cleared for this new carbon market to become operational, COP29 negotiators said there is still more work to do before it can be launched. Discussions will continue through the end of the conference to address any additional questions and concerns.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser

Day three of COP29, the global U.N. climate conference, highlighted how challenging it will be for the world to transition away from fossil fuels. As some countries are making new commitments to reduce emissions and ramp up clean energy production, others are advocating for the continued use of fossil fuels.

Joining the United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates, Brazil announced its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans on Wednesday. NDCs are each country's plan for achieving the goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. Brazil has pledged to reduce its carbon emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035.

"Cutting emissions by 67% by 2035 could put Brazil on a pathway to reach net-zero by 2050," said Karen Silverwood-Cope, climate director of WRI Brasil.

Brazil is hosting next year's COP, and Silverwood-Cope said the country has "a responsibility to lead by example and aim high."

But Silverwood-Cope also pointed out that Brazil's NDC does not include a plan for reducing fossil fuel emissions. Instead, they are pledging to increase biofuel production. Biofuel is produced from renewable biological sources, including plants and algae. In Brazil, biofuel primarily comes from soybean oil. As a country with a history of mass deforestation, the loss of vegetation and forests for energy is controversial.

"Instead of saying that they're going to reduce oil consumption in the country, they are betting on biofuels," said Silverwood-Cope.

She said Brazil plans to use denigrated land for biofuel production. Deingrated land is land that has already been deforested.

As Brazil announced its new, stronger climate pledge, another South American country moved in the opposite direction by literally walking out of the conference.

Argentinian President Javier Milei ordered the country's COP29 representatives to withdraw from the conference and return home. Milei, the country's newly-elected, far-right president, has a history of climate change denial.

Despite the drama, delegates came to some agreements, including using more nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuels.

The United States, El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Türkiye endorsed a declaration calling for tripling the use of nuclear energy by 2050.

Italy also voiced its support for more nuclear energy and touted its ongoing investment in nuclear fusion research. Unlike current nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion doesn't create radioactive waste. Despite billions of dollars in research funding, the technology has yet to be developed commercially.

"We must use all available technologies. Not only renewables, but also gas, biofuels, hydrogen, CO2 capture, and, in the future, nuclear fusion," said Italian President Giorgia Meloni. "Italy is at the forefront on nuclear fusion."

-ABC News' Charlotte Slovin

If negotiating international agreements to slow down and reverse the global climate crisis wasn't challenging enough, the delegates at COP29, the U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan, are facing the grim reality that the world is moving in the wrong direction when it comes to fossil fuels.

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report from the Global Carbon Project, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024. The study projects that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will reach 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.

For almost three decades, international leaders have been attending COP conferences and discussing the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, despite these efforts, the Global Carbon Project says, "There is still no sign that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions."

"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," wrote Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute in a press statement.

He added, "Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts."

Although the past decade has seen a decline in emissions from deforestation and land-use changes, emissions this year are rising compared to 2023, influenced by extreme drought conditions linked to the 2023-2024 El Niño climate event, according to the study. Despite this increase, land-use emissions have actually declined by 20% over the past decade thanks to reforestation and afforestation efforts.

Efforts to stop burning coal for energy are slowing down the year-over-year increase in those emissions, but they are still rising, albeit modestly. The study estimates that global coal emissions will increase by 0.2%. China and India are seeing increases of 0.2% and 4.5%, respectively, while the United States and the European Union are seeing declines of 3.5% and 15.8%.

Overall, the study found that China's emissions (32% of the worldwide total) for 2024 are expected to increase by 0.2% compared to 2023. India (8% of the worldwide total) is projected to grow emissions by 4.6% from the previous year. The European Union (7% of the worldwide total) should see a 3.8% decline year-to-year and the United States (13% of the worldwide total) is looking at a 0.6% decrease compared to 2023.

It's important to remember that many products purchased and used in the U.S. and Europe are made in places like China and India. Hence, their emissions reflect the manufacturing of goods for other countries.

According to the research, this trend worsens the cumulative impact of CO₂ in the atmosphere, projected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, representing a 52% increase compared to pre-industrial levels.

There is some good news in the data. The study finds that many countries have succeeded in reducing their fossil fuel carbon emissions or slowing down their growth. However, it's not enough to put the world on a path to net zero.

"There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive," wrote Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in a statement. "Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others."

-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser