October record heat made more likely because of climate change
It may be fall, but it feels a lot like summer in much of the country. That has some people wondering: Is climate change responsible for these record-high temperatures? With climate attribution science, we can now answer that question and determine when human-amplified climate change is responsible for extreme weather events and the significance of that impact.
Using advanced computer models, climate attribution science takes a real-world weather event, such as a record high-temperature day or a hurricane, and compares it to the world where human-caused, post-industrial greenhouse gas emissions don't exist. By comparing what is actually happening with what would have happened without human intervention, science can estimate how likely or severe a weather event has become due to climate change.
Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research and communications organization, uses climate attribution science to provide real-time data that shows "how much climate change influences the temperature on a particular day." The information is displayed on a global interactive map called the Climate Shift Index.
For example, the Index showed that human-amplified climate change made Sunday's record high in Tucson, Arizona of 98 degrees at least three times more likely. The same was true for Waco, Texas, which broke a record with 92-degree heat, and Mobile, Alabama, which hit a record 90 degrees.
Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the U.S., with children and adults over 65 being among the most vulnerable to heat-related illnesses and death. And the average number of heat waves that major U.S. cities experience each year has doubled since the 1980s, according to the federal government's Fifth National Climate Assessment.
-ABC News Climate Unit's Matthew Glasser