Russia has lost 15-20% of combat power, US says
The Pentagon is "not buying" Russia's denial of responsibility for the Ukraine train station attack that killed at least 50, a senior U.S. defense official said Friday.
"They originally claimed a successful strike and then only retracted it when there were reports of civilian casualties," the official said. "It's our full expectation that this was a Russian strike -- we believe they used a short-range ballistic missile, an SS-21."
As Russian troops retreat from some Ukrainian cities, some of the Russian battalion tactical groups (or BTGs, with roughly 800-1,000 troops each) that have withdrawn back across the Belarusian and Russian borders have been essentially "eradicated" from the fighting in Ukraine, according to the senior defense official.
"There's just nothing left of the BTG except a handful of troops and maybe a small number of vehicles," the official said.
In terms of total losses -- counting troops, tanks, aircraft and missile inventory -- Russia has lost between 15-20% of the combat power it originally had arrayed against Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, according to the official.
According to the official, some of the withdrawn Russian forces are now making their way to the Russian cities of Belgorod and Valuyki, to the northwest of Donbas. But there are "no indications" that fresh troops are waiting there to join them, the official said.
For now, degraded Russian BTGs are "exploring the option of" consolidating, banding together remaining troops and supplies to form new units, the official said.
Russia is also aiming to recruit upwards of 60,000 new troops, according to the official.
After Russian BTGs rebuild, "the most likely course of action would be for them to move immediately south right into the Donbas," the official said.
The Pentagon now estimates more than 40 Russian BTGs are positioned in or near the Donbas region. The estimate was "more than 30" on Wednesday, meaning up to 10,000 more troops have arrived in recent days.
-ABC News' Matt Seyler