Cuba's Political Succession Has Already Occurred

Dec. 14, 2006 — -- Gen. Raúl Castro and a collective leadership have effectively taken the reins of power in Cuba. Fidel Castro may live a while longer, but it is highly unlikely that he will ever return to rule Cuba as he has in the past.

The new leadership hosted the nonaligned summit in September -- a major international conference that reaffirms Cuba's ongoing significant international clout.

It presides over a continuing spurt of economic growth, fueled in large part by the mutually productive partnership between Cuba and Hugo Chávez's Venezuela.

It has launched a crackdown on corruption, dismissing heads of major government posts as well as exposing the petty corruption that robs consumers of metropolitan Havana in their daily interactions with government-run shops, restaurants and stores.

The style of the new leadership is telling. Acting President Raúl Castro has mastered the art of the 20-minute speech, signaling a major contrast to his brother, for whom no speech seemed long enough. Raúl Castro is brisk and to-the-point, but also less publicly persuasive than his loquacious brother.

The members of the top collective leadership team have delineated their responsibilities and sustained a united approach before their people and the world. Each has his own task. They do not get in each other's way.

The government, the communist party and their network of mass organizations successfully mobilized a large enough number of people to fill the streets to honor Fidel's 80th birthday celebration on the 50th anniversary of his landing in Cuba (Dec. 2, 1956) to launch the insurrectionary war that would bring him to power on Jan. 2, 1959.

Yet, there are some clouds on the horizon. The specter of civil war may haunt Cuba's future.

Within hours of the announcement on July 31, 2006, that Fidel Castro had been hospitalized, some prominent Cuban-origin political leaders in Miami called upon Cubans to revolt against their government. For his part, Gen. Raúl Castro also mobilized the Cuban armed forces and called up the ready reserves.

Jorge Dominguez is the Antonio Madero professor of government and vice provost for international affairs at Harvard University. Born in Havana, he came to the United States in 1960. He has written "Cuba: Order and Revolution"and "To Make the World Safe for Revolution: Cuba's Foreign Policy."