Iraq Trend Hopeful, but Dangers Lurk in Numbers

BAGHDAD, Dec. 19, 2007 — -- It's a long, detailed report that has more than 61 pages and touches on everything from violence to the price of food.

"Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq" is the latest Defense Department effort to tell Congress and the American public about the half a trillion dollar effort to stabilize Iraq.

The report is generally optimistic and the trends are clear. It's getting better. There is less violence, more electricity and the economy is improving. The military calls these measurements a "matrix." It's the military's way to use numbers to determine how it is improving life in Iraq. This month's numbers are better than last month and much better than a year ago.

But, each number only tells part of the story.

The number of attacks, car bombs and murders are down. There are many reasons for the change. In most areas of Baghdad, Shiite and Sunni Muslims once lived next to each other in peace. After two years of sectarian violence and ethnic cleansing, many areas of Baghdad are now segregated. Tens of thousands have left the city or moved out of mixed neighborhoods. In some areas more than 40 percent of the homes are contested because the owners have fled out of fear of their neighbors, and squatters chased from other sections of the city have taken over their homes.

Baghdad has been cut into safe zones defined by their sect and shielded by blast walls or protected by militias. Inside these sanctuaries, some neighborhood numbers say it is safer. But crossing the city can be dangerous. Rashid is a 67-year-old grandfather who lives in East Baghdad. His son and 3-year-old grandson live in the West. He hasn't seen his grandson in two years. Numbers can't tell his story.

Ali lives in northwest Baghdad. His dentist is in the city center. It's been three years since his last appointment. Getting your teeth cleaned in Baghdad can be more than uncomfortable. It can cost you your life.

The United States received essential help of Sunni tribes in pushing the insurgents out of Sunni areas. But the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri Kamel al-Maliki has balked at helping to arm them or incorporating them into the nation's police force for fear they could later turn on Shiites.