Obama's Mideast Envoy Tries to Talk Peace

JERUSALEM, Jan 29, 2008— -- If U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell had any illusions that making peace in the Middle East would be easy, his first 24 hours on the ground may have quickly destroyed them.

The Gaza cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is creaking under the weight of tit for tat attacks by both sides. Just today, more rockets were fired into Israel, and Israel hit back with yet more airstrikes.

The violence has narrowed the focus of former U.S. Sen. Mitchell's maiden visit into trying to shore up the cease-fire and to agree on a deal to open Gaza's borders. The deal must initiate the reconstruction of Gaza after Israel's recent assault and satisfy Israeli demands that Hamas will not be able to rearm and regroup.

The military confrontation and the resultant civilian and infrastructure toll have heightened the sense of urgency around President Obama's early engagement here. But it has all made it more difficult.

Mitchell has met all of Israel's leading politicians and senior figures from the country's powerful military and security institutions. All of them will have warned him of the existential danger presented by Hamas and its Iranian sponsor.

But despite the battering, Hamas remains defiant and in control of Gaza. Israel, meanwhile, is in pre-election fever with polls suggesting a shift to the right, an indicator that voters believe the current center-left government failed in its mission to weaken Hamas.

So that means a Palestinian body politic that is as divided as ever, and the prospect of a new Israeli government led by Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu and others, who are no fans of the "two state" solution.

"The conditions are as bad or worse than they've ever been" is the view of Yossi Klein Halevi at the Shalem Center, Jerusalem's right of center Israeli think tank.

"Paradoxically, had the Israeli army gone all the way and toppled Hamas in Gaza, I think we would be in a more propitious situation in terms of jump-starting the peace process," he said.

According to Halevi, the Obama administration should accordingly lower its expectations away from talk of a final settlement in favor or more incremental steps in slowly rewarding Palestinian moderates.