Tight Election in Israel as Nation Votes

JERUSALEM, Feb. 10, 2009— -- Two weeks ago it was a sure thing -- Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu led his nearest rival by a margin of 10 parliamentary seats. All the polls said he would be the next prime minister.

But as Israelis go to the polls today, the margin is now too close to call. Tzipi Livni, the leader of the centrist Kadima Party and the current foreign minister is closing the gap, believes she can win.

Their fate lies in the hands of the undecided voters -- almost 20 percent of the electorate, according to the pollsters.

Whoever wins when results are released Wednesday morning faces days and weeks of coalition building before Israel has its new government.

President Shimon Peres selects the party leader most likely in his opinion to be able to form a stable coalition. It is usually the leader of the party with the most seats in the Knesset, but it doesn't have to be. That's where the great uncertainty of this election lies.

What will the election's cast of supporting characters tell Peres when he interviews them? Whom will they say they want to be prime minister?

The surprise package of this campaign may wield enormous influence over this process. He is Avigdor Lieberman of the extremist right wing party Israel Beitenu or Israel, Our Home.

An immigrant from the former Soviet republic of Moldova, Lieberman has run his campaign on a platform of nationalism and his slogan "No Loyalty, No Citizenship" is a direct threat against Israel's Arab minority.

They have long been unwilling partners in the Jewish state and many Israeli Jews resent their often open support for the Palestinian cause.

In the highly charged mood after Israel's military onslaught in Gaza, the appeal of Lieberman's views has widened. The polls predict his will be the third largest party in the Knesset. He is likely to be a senior minister and a key player in any future government.

The math of the likely result suggests a right wing government, one that will be far less willing to make concessions and become a partner in President Obama's vision for peace.