Syria's civil war reignites: Reporter's notebook

LONDON -- I was in Aleppo, Syria, with rebel fighters when they first entered the city in 2012. It was the full bloom of what we used to call the Arab Spring.

A peaceful protest movement calling for democracy and dignity that emerged in 2011 was met with brute, deadly force by Syrian President Bashar Assad's security forces.

By early summer 2012, a large-scale armed rebellion was underway. At first, Assad's poorly motivated, ill-disciplined army was a poor match for the Sunni-led popular rebellion. The minority Alawite-led regime had persecuted, subjugated and discriminated against much of the country's Sunni majority for decades.

This was to be a moment of reckoning.

Enter Russia, primarily to protect its own interests in the Middle East and its naval base in Latakia, Syria's principal port city and a strategically important foothold on the Mediterranean. Moscow provided air, weapon and artillery support to the regime, as well as mercenary fighters.

Iran, long an ally and sponsor of Assad and Syria as a key node in its Axis of Resistance, stepped up its military presence to protect its client and secure weapons flows and influence.

And Hezbollah, the Iranian-sponsored group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and others, flooded the front lines with some of its best fighters. Together, they halted and ultimately reversed the rebel advance, although never completely, as the rebels clung to a small corner of northwest Syria.

The ragtag group of fighters that had risen up to protect a growing popular protest movement had expected the West to rally to its side, as it had done in Libya. But despite some assistance from Gulf Arab States and others, as well as verbal support from the U.S. and Europe, there never was any meaningful support that would change the balance of power on the ground. The rebel alliance fractured and segments became increasingly radicalized, giving birth first to the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra and eventually to ISIS.

With millions displaced, hundreds of thousands dead and a historic refugee crisis spilling into Turkey, the Syrian conflict became largely ignored and the front lines ostensibly froze for nine long years.

Until last week. On Wednesday, the reformed rebel alliance under the flag of HTS suddenly started to sweep through the northwestern Syrian countryside. Over the weekend, it faced minimal resistance as it retook Syria's largest city, Aleppo.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is a jihadi Islamist movement that has disavowed its previous al-Qaeda affiliation. But it's still condemned by the U.S., Turkey and other countries as a terrorist organization.

The events of the last week point to the interconnectivity of three major conflicts, as well as other major political developments -- including the reelection of Donald Trump -- and they raise important questions about why now.

The war in Ukraine has tied down Russian forces, who may have the upper hand in Ukraine but are hemorrhaging troops (why else need thousands of North Korean soldiers?) and have relocated battlefield resources away from Syria. Russia has already responded with airstrikes, but its military options are likely limited by its commitments elsewhere.

Israel's war in Lebanon has decapitated Hezbollah's leadership and stretched its forces thin. They were already weary and depleted from their role in helping Assad in the war in neighboring Syria. Its fighters were instrumental in bolstering Assad's troops and don't appear to be anywhere near ready or capable of helping Assad when they have enough trouble at home.

Then there's the Israel-Iran conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been active on the front lines in Syria and is in a controlling position in Damascus. The Syrian capital is one of its main hubs for weapons and other support to Assad, as well as Hezbollah. Don't forget that without Syria, the Shia crescent that allows Iran to spread its weapons and influence throughout the Middle East is effectively broken. But Iran has problems at home with Israel, and its key proxies in Yemen and Lebanon are on the back foot.

Why now?

In a recent article for New Lines Magazine, Hassan Hassan and Michael Weiss write: "Turkey allowed the operation to happen owing to a unique concatenation of circumstances." The authors cite a number of reasons but they include Trump's reelection and: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's desire for greater bargaining power with the incoming White House, given the expectation that Donald Trump will inevitably withdraw U.S. forces from northeastern Syria, as he's long said he intends to do."

We are witnessing dramatic developments and scenes in Syria with connections to Turkey, Iran, Israel and Russia's war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently spoke about a "new world order." This is unlikely to be quite what he meant or wanted.