Poll: Young Voters Favor Kerry

Oct. 21, 2004-- -- John Kerry has improved his standing among young voters recently, raising the stakes on the eventual turnout of this closely watched group.

Among all likely voters, President Bush maintains a slight lead over Kerry, 51 percent to 46 percent, in the latest ABC News tracking poll, the same as it's been the past two days. But Kerry has a sizable 57 percent to 38 percent lead among young voters, age 18 to 29.

That's much different than in the 2000 election, when young voters divided pretty much like everyone else -- 48 percent for Al Gore, 46 percent for Bush. If they stay in Kerry's corner, and turn out in large numbers, it could make the difference this year.

Antipathy toward Bush -- rather than enthusiasm for Kerry -- looks to be a significant factor in young voters' preferences. By 59 percent to 38 percent, young likely voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. All likely voters, by contrast, now split, 48 percent to 50 percent.

Ideology also plays a role -- young adults are 11 points more likely than older likely voters to describe themselves as liberals. But pure partisanship is not the cause, since young adults are no more likely than their elders to identify themselves as Democrats.

As noted, it's also not enthusiasm: Kerry in fact lags in enthusiasm among young people as he does among all likely voters. Just 35 percent of young people who support Kerry are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy; by contrast, 55 percent of young voters who prefer Bush are very enthusiastic about him. (To expand the sample of young voters, much of this analysis is based on data aggregated from daily tracking polls since Oct. 1.)

That soft enthusiasm about Kerry raises two questions. One is the constancy of young adults' support; they have fairly consistently favored Kerry over Bush in ABC News tracking data since Oct. 1, but by varying margins; his lead now is the biggest it's been. Another is the question of turnout: Low enthusiasm can indicate a lack of motivation to get to the polls.

There are turnout questions. Young likely voters account for 15 percent of all likely voters in this poll, which is close to their turnout, 17 percent, in 2000 and 1996 alike. They accounted for a bit more voters, 21 percent of the total, in the 1992 exit poll.

But first they have to get to the polls. At this point, about a quarter of 18- to 29-year-old likely voters say they don't know where their polling place is (and very few say they've already voted or plan to vote absentee). Polling-place knowledge is higher among older likely voters.