Exit Poll: Ohio Reflects Divisions Across the Nation

Nov. 3, 2004 -- -- If the vote in Ohio had been about the economy, John Kerry would likely be president-elect. If it were about terrorism, President Bush might have had an easier time. Instead it was about both, and more -- and that made it a very long night.

On the economy, 55 percent of Ohio voters said the job situation in their area is worse today than four years ago; 17 percent said it's better.

And 57 percent said the state's economy is in bad shape. Normally that's trouble for the incumbent -- but Kerry didn't entirely capitalize on it: Asked whom they trust more to handle the economy, 43 percent in Ohio picked Bush, 38 percent Kerry.

On terrorism, there was much more differentiation, and in Bush's favor: Ohio voters were 18 points more likely to say they trust Bush and not Kerry to handle it, by 48 percent-30 percent. And 58 percent said the country is safer from terrorism now than it was before Sept. 11 -- the cornerstone issue of Bush's re-election campaign.

In perhaps the bottom line result in an incumbent election, 53 percent in the Ohio exit poll said they approve of Bush's job performance overall. And in a telling note, this was the first time Republicans outnumbered Democrats voting in Ohio -- however narrowly -- in exit polls, at least since 1988.

For all that, Ohio was close, reflecting some of the very same divisions that appeared across the nation. While slightly more voters in Ohio approved than disapproved of the decision to go to war in Iraq, slightly more also said things are going badly there.

Kerry did better in Ohio than Al Gore did in 2000 with moderates, independents and young voters, and maintained his base among blacks.

But he held a slimmer margin among voters from union households than Gore in 2000. Bush, meanwhile, was strong with his white Protestant churchgoing base -- and enjoyed an even larger margin among white Catholics in Ohio than he did in 2000.