Despite a year of long-winded political showmanship over health care and the economy, unemployment remains at 10 percent, and more Americans believe the economy is getting worse than getting better, according to the most recent ABC News poll. While the President remains personally popular among Americans, a majority -- 52 percent -- disapprove of his handling of the economy.
\"It's a tough balancing act,\" said Robert Lehrman, former White House speechwriter and author of \"The Political Speechwriter's Companion.\"
\"One the one hand he has to say to voters who have been disappointed with the process in the last year: 'I understand your frustration, I agree with your frustration.' But on the other hand, he can't say, 'And now I give up.' He can't say, 'I'm going to abandon all my plans.' He'll say, 'I'm going to fight for the things that brought me to the White House.'\"
Lehrman says State of the Union addresses follow a predictable, tried-and-true formula that presidents have used for decades.
\"The state of the union is not good,\" President Gerald Ford famously opined in 1975, when millions of Americans were out of work, facing a lingering recession and a growing national debt. \"Progress and solutions can be achieved, and they will be achieved,\" he said.
Five years later, on the heels of one recession and on the eve of another, Jimmy Carter, promised \"our challenges are formidable but there's a new spirit of unity and resolve in our country. We move into the 1980s with confidence and hope and a bright vision of the America we want.\"
And when that bright vision dimmed, Ronald Reagan told the country \"in the near future the state of the union and the economy will be better -- much better -- if we summon the strength to continue on the course that we've charted.\"
That course ultimately led to a resurgence of economic prosperity – and Reagan's approval ratings – by the mid-1980s, and some experts say Obama can learn from Reagan's example in staying the course.
Lehrman, who cites Reagan and Obama as the two best orators of recent memory, says presidential reassurances during tough economic times may only temporarily soothe anxieties and sagging presidential poll numbers -- but it remains important to the national psyche nonetheless.
Former President Donald Trump has won back the White House, and Republicans have won control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. But we still don't know how big the GOP's Senate and House majorities will be, since there are still several races that don't have a projected winner. The outcomes of these elections could have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.
However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. California — home to multiple undecided House races — is still working through counting all its ballots. Other races will require ranked-choice voting to resolve. And still others, like Pennsylvania's Senate race, could go to a recount.
We at 538 will be tracking it all on this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.
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