The Note: Oblivious, In Denial, and Dangerous

— -- WASHINGTON, Sep. 8

NEWS SUMMARY
We suggested in Wednesday's Note that you should score along with us at home to decide who won the Katrina political news cycle.

We hate to be backward looking, but one must know who won yesterday to figure out who has momentum for today.

The President is still in a heap o' political trouble, the facts on the ground are still hideous, and Mr. Bush still hasn't found his footing or his voice on this story, but his side clearly won the last news cycle in raw political terms.

Consider:

1. Congressional Republicans have decided (for now) that their political interests (as in 2002 and 2004) lie in solidarity with the Bush Administration. "We shall all hang together" is the unofficial mantra, and the clearest manifestation of that is the decision to produce a congressional investigation process that is precisely what the White House wanted, in terms of timing, focus, and the make up of the committee. As of now, the investigation is likely to be as tough as any other that this Congress has done of the Bush Administration (which is to say: not very, or at all), and Democrats have no leverage to change that.

The poor families of the Gulf Coast are not as potent a force in Washington as the 9/11 families, and thus won't be able to force an independent review. That means a serious look -- with the subpoena power the media lacks -- of pre-Katrina FEMA funding and actions and other Administration vulnerabilities will likely not happen, and certainly not anytime soon.

2. No one in either party -- except the Wall Street Journal editorial board -- is dissenting from the Notion that this problem can be solved by throwing tens of billions of dollars at it. And aid is now flowing into the region at a ferocious clip, courtesy of George W. Bush and a Republican Congress.

3. The press has moved on from a sole, hot focus of blaming the Feds for Katrina, to giving big play to the human stories (some even positive) and even featuring non-Katrina stories (To wit: the third tease of Matt Lauer's cold open began "And surviving her own storm -- Martha Stewart. . .").

4. The President's poll numbers are mostly holding so far.

5. Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, and the right echo chamber are supporting the President, supporting the relief effort, and attacking the Clintons.

6. As if secretly directed by Ken Mehlman, the following liberal Democratic forces have stepped up to roles of prominence in this news cycle, giving Tracey Schmitt a barrel full of fish: Howard Dean, George Soros, John Kerry, MoveOn.org, and Hillary Clinton. When those entities have been the face of the opposition, the right has become fervently united and Team Bush has won.

7. Leader Pelosi and Leader Reid are "in charge" of the Democratic political "strategy" on Katrina.

8. Many former Bush advisers (particularly communications and operations specialists) have semi-secretly reported for duty in Washington and on the ground, providing much-needed reinforcements.

9. The White House press corps, having valiantly tried for days, is finding that getting Scott McClellan to actually brief the nation in the public interest is no more possible on this story than on the Iraq war, the CIA leak investigation, or anything else of public concern -- and they are, understandably, losing some of their zeal to try to break through. From "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees" to, well, everything else -- it is clear that answers and explanations from 1600 will not be forthcoming. And that has always worked for this White House before.

10. You've got Congressman Kingston and DeLay voice Kevin Madden on the record playing the blame game against Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin, in the Wall Street Journal, reflecting the unity.

On the other, weaker hand, here's the case the Democrats can make for why they won the news cycle:

1. Oprah is still on their side.

2. If today's Bob Novak column is even 60% true, the President has some problems with his own party under the façade of unity. It says, among other things: that Hill Republicans are unhappy with the pre- and post-Katrina performances of lawyers Chertoff and Brown; that on a September 1 conference call among GOP members there "was much hand-wringing about Republican prospects in the 2006 elections"; that "Criticism of FEMA was even voiced at Tuesday's Cabinet meeting, of all places. While all other Cabinet members were silent, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Alphonso Jackson blew the whistle. He said HUD's readiness to send emergency housing to New Orleans was thwarted by FEMA's red tape"; and the big finish: "these Republicans talk about taking FEMA back from the Homeland Security Department. They agree that heads must roll, certainly Brown's and possibly Chertoff's. Above all, these Republican politicians say, let's get the lawyers out of disaster relief." LINK

(Of course the column also says that Mark Foley is not a shouter and Chris Shays just HATES to criticize the President, so. . .)

3. This Los Angeles Times blind quote: "One Senate Republican aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, predicted that public outrage over the government's perceived failures in responding to Hurricane Katrina would eventually force Congress and the administration to agree to an independent inquiry." LINK

"'The phones in our offices have been ringing off the hook,' with constituents expressing shock and anger at the government's response, said the aide. 'I'm sure everyone else's offices are experiencing the same thing.'"

4. This, from Brody Mullins in the Wall Street Journal:

"Republicans, as the party controlling both the executive and legislative branches in Washington, have the most at risk. A recent historical study reaching back nearly a century showed that governing parties suffered the political brunt of all manner of natural disasters, from New Jersey shark attacks of 1916 to the farm-state drought of 2000."

"'Voters regularly punish governments for acts of God,' concluded Princeton political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels. As long as the event or the response to it can persuasively be linked to the party in power, they added, 'the electorate will take out its frustrations on the incumbent and vote for out-parties.'"

5. Potential trouble for a President who doesn't like to give in and fire anyone under fire, as reflected in ABC News reporting and this New York Times blind quote: "Senior House Republican officials said that, behind the scenes, some lawmakers were pressing the Bush administration to dismiss Michael D. Brown, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency." LINK

"'He's been compromised,' said one top Republican lawmaker who works closely with the White House and did not want to be identified when discussing a delicate administration personnel issue."

As for today's events where the Republicans have an opportunity to win:

Vice President and Mrs. Cheney have a packed schedule in the Gulf Coast region today. They will tour Gulfport, MS and New Orleans, LA before ending their day at the Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rouge, LA.

At 1:50 pm ET, First Lady Laura Bush and Secretary Spellings visit Greenbrook Elementary School followed by a visit to Goodman Oaks Church of Christ in Southhaven, MS.

Treasury Secretary Snow and IRS Commissioner Mark Everson will hold a Noon ET press conference at the Department of Treasury to discuss tax related assistance to Hurricane Katrina victims.

Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council leads a pro-Roberts press conference at the National Press Club at 1:00 pm ET.

At 11:30 am ET, State Senator Ruben Diaz (D-NYC) and more than 150 pastors from New York City will publicly endorse John Roberts on the steps of Senator Hillary Clinton's Senate office building. They are encouraging Senator Clinton to vote for the confirmation of Roberts.

Events today where the Democrats have an opportunity to win:

Democratic Leader Harry Reid, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), members of the Democratic leadership, and ranking members of committees will hold an 11:00 am ET press conference to unveil their Katrina-related legislative package.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds her weekly press conference at 10:45 am ET.

MoveOn.org is organizing a 1:00 pm ET press conference (taking place outside the White House) with Katrina evacuees protesting the federal government's response to and lack of preparedness for Katrina.

Jump balls:

Scott McClellan's 12:30 pm ET press briefing.

At 10:00 am ET Homeland Security officials brief Sens. Collins and Lieberman.

Other calendar items:

Today is the deadline for the Base Realignment and Closure commission to send its final list to President Bush.

The Weekly Standard marks its 10-year anniversary at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC.

Karen Hughes is scheduled to participate in a town hall style staff meeting with Secretary of State Rice at the State Department where she will unveil her plans for re-shaping America's image around the world.

The final televised debate among the four Democratic mayoral candidates in New York City is set to take place at 7:00 pm ET on WABC-TV.

The politics of Katrina: Congress reacts:
The New York Time's Carl Hulse has all the details on the Sen. Collins-led bicameral investigation announced by Speaker Hastert and Majority Leader Frist. LINK

With the midterm elections 14 months away, both parties see high stakes in assigning blame for the government's "lagging response to Katrina," the Washington Post's Babington and Murray report. LINK

The Boston Globe's Klein and Kranish: LINK

Hours before Frist and Hastert announced the creation of the committee, key Republican Senators, including Sens. Inhofe, McCain, Brownback, Sessions, and DeMint said they opposed creating a special bicameral committee or an independent commission. "The GOP leaders' proposal threatens to trample the oversight plans of five Senate committees," The Hill's Bolton and O'Connor report. LINK

Tom DeLay told members of the Republican Conference yesterday that GOP leaders are seriously considering writing a sweeping new energy bill in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, The Hill's Tiron and O'Connor report. LINK

The politics of Katrina: Big Casino budget politics:
From the AP this morning: "The Labor Department reports that an estimated 10,000 workers who lost their jobs because of Hurricane Katrina filed for unemployment benefits last week."

The escalating cost of Katrina will probably keep the deficit near record territory in 2006 and has prompted Republican congressional leaders to delay consideration of two packages of spending and tax cuts, which under statute are supposed to be completed by month's end, the Washington Post's Weisman and Goldstein report. LINK

Katrina could make it possible for Democrats to scuttle GOP plans to cut taxes and entitlement spending, The Hill's Young and Hearn report. "An impending parliamentary ruling could strip the final budget-reconciliation bill of its special limitations on debate, effectively enabling Democrats to stall the measure when it reaches the Senate floor and robbing the GOP of a major fiscal-policy victory. The minority party could seek to amend the bill, wrench concessions from Republicans or filibuster budget reconciliation in its entirety." LINK

Former Iron Triangle member Joe Allbaugh was in Louisiana yesterday, helping his private clients get business, the Washington Post's Tom Edsall reports. LINK

The Hill also looks at Allbaugh's post-Katrina work on behalf of his clients. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's David Rogers reports: "Speaker Dennis Hastert (R., Ill.) hopes to move the emergency spending bill to the House floor as early as today, and despite some unhappiness, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Thad Cochran (R., Miss.) said he will urge his colleagues to accept the House version without amendments."

And this bit of green-eyeshadery: ". . .(T)he administration may face objections to its proposal to greatly expand the ability of agencies to expedite procurement contracts that are free of some small-business and competitive requirements."

"Current law allows such flexibility for purchases of as much as $25,000. The administration wants to raise this threshold to $250,000 for purchases related to the disaster-recovery effort."

The Wall Street Journal editorial board -- which for some tastes has been too easy on the President's acquiescence to the wishes of a big spending Congress controlled by his own party gently nudges him to fight for tax cuts and against big spending (and to clean house at FEMA):

"Where is President Bush? Helicopter tours of the disaster zone are important to reassure the suffering, and the federal disaster-bureaucracy needs to be shaken up. But in our system only a President can stop a runaway Congress. Mr. Bush needs to start explaining to the country that while Washington will spend what it takes to assist the victims, he won't allow Congress to exploit this disaster to build more Alaskan bridges to nowhere."

The politics of Katrina: 2008: Democrats:
The Washington Post's Dan Balz has Sen. Hillary Clinton becoming a "clear target" of Republicans in the wake of Katrina as she emerges as a "national spokeswoman for the Democratic Party." LINK

"Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton sounded as if she was launching a presidential campaign over Hurricane Katrina yesterday," writes Deborah Orin of the New York Post of Sen. Clinton's morning show rounds of criticism. LINK

(Check out the Rich Galen "shocked, shocked. . ." style kicker quote.)

"John Edwards's mantra of Two Americas doesn't sound so corny now that Bush's soaring vision of democracy on the march has suddenly been laid as bare as an abandoned Superdome where the toilets are overflowing," Tina Brown writes in the Washington Post's Style section. LINK

The AP's Gary Robertson reports that Edwards -- in an address at his newly established UNC center, which will hone in on poverty alleviation -- threw his hat into the Katrina commentary ring yesterday and denounced both the President and the FEMA director for their lag in response time. LINK

The AP reports that Gov. Bill Richardson will start a task force to see if there is any evidence of gas gauging in New Mexico. LINK

The politics of Katrina: Democratic strategy:
"Democrats offered what was shaping up as the most concerted attack that they had mounted on the White House in the five years of the Bush presidency," write Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse of the New York Times in their look at yesterday's collective Democratic response from the likes of Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Sen. Clinton, Pelosi, and others. LINK

"Democrats blame 'oblivious' Bush," blares the Washington Times. LINK

"Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday sought to turn the chaos of Hurricane Katrina into a benefit for Democrats, decrying Republican priorities and telling black pastors in Miami that race played a 'significant role' in the storm's death toll," reports the Miami Herald. LINK

The politics of Katrina: Bush test/strategy:
David Brooks uses his op-ed column yet again to urge a seizing of this opportunity to deal with poverty in America. Brooks writes New Orleans should not be built as before, but instead should be a beacon of cultural integration where middle class residents live side by side with poor residents. LINK

The politics of Katrina: assigning blame:
The Washington Post ed board is scathing about President Bush's rhetorical and substantive response to Hurricane Katrina. But the paper hopes, for the sake of the country, that he is not rendered a "lame duck" more than three years before he leaves office. LINK

Former Republican Sen. Warren Rudman tells Roll Call's Morton Kondracke that the U.S. military should be elevated to the role of a first responder in huge disaster situations. "I don't understand why the 82nd Airborne Division wasn't called in to pre-position supplies beforehand and move in right afterward to provide security." Rudman said that, if necessary, Congress should amend the 19th Century Posse Comitatus law, which forbids federal troops from performing law enforcement functions. But he said the law can be waived in emergencies.

The briefing Secretary Chertoff delivered to Members of Congress on Tuesday evening does not appear to have gone off without a hitch as far as some Democrats were concerned. Here's the New York Times' Eric Lichtblau with that story. LINK

Michael Luo of the New York Times looks at the mixed reviews being offered for Gov. Blanco's performance thus far. LINK

New Orleans Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal has a Wall Street Journal op-ed in which he rails against bureaucracy and FEMA, without naming names or getting too tough.

Ken Bazinet gets this blind quote about FEMA Director Brown in his Daily News story: "'He's said a lot of dumb-ass things lately,' said a Department of Homeland Security official." LINK

The politics of Katrina: 2008: Republicans:
In her Boston Globe column Joan Vennochi wonders of Gov. Romney's giving spirit to Katrina victims will cross back over to those in Massachusetts who have always needed government assistance. LINK

"Citing what he said was a 'history' of public corruption in Louisiana and the 'abysmal failure" of current state officials to respond to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) on Wednesday urged Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) to prevent local politicians from controlling any part of the billions of federal disaster relief dollars slated for the state," Roll Call's Emily Pierce reports.

Rudy Giuliani refuses to point fingers at the governmental response to Katrina, reports the Associated Press. LINK

The O'Connor seat:
Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times looks at the Roberts switch and its implications, although he concedes that history (and politics) suggests the President will get his choice confirmed. LINK

David Broder thinks that "whether an actual threat develops to … abortion, civil liberties, civil rights, affirmative action, gender equality, environmental protections, or the separation of church and state … probably depends" more on the choice Bush makes for O'Connor's replacement than it does on Roberts' nomination as Chief Justice. LINK

John Roberts for Chief Justice:
The New York Times on the continued Democratic push for documents, the pro-Roberts press conference to take place outside Sen. Clinton's office urging her support, and this Paul Weyrich quote on a possible Gonzales nomination, which he delivered to an Administration official and recounted for the New York Times: LINK

"'Please don't do this for your sake - not for mine - because it will destroy your coalition,' Mr. Weyrich recounted in an interview. 'It will absolutely destroy your base.'"

Note, too, the Times reporting that today is the final mock hearing for John Roberts prior to his Monday debut.

Eager to focus next week's hearings on Roberts' civil rights record, Democrats renewed their request Wednesday to learn more about 16 cases that the former deputy solicitor general worked on during the presidency of Bush 41, the Washington Post's Jo Becker reports. LINK

The Post story also contains the fruits of a search of the records at the George H.W. Bush Library, with a Solicitor General-era Roberts document that will have Democratic insiders buzzing.

The Bush Administration asked the Supreme Court yesterday to turn away a challenge to its military commissions. Lawyers for Salim Ahmed Hamdan are seeking Supreme Court review of an appeals court decision in which Roberts sided with the other two judges in favor of the Bush administration, the AP reports. LINK

George Will wants Congress to ask Roberts about his "jurisprudential inclinations." LINK

The Legal Times dissects the pet issues that Senators on the Judiciary panel are likely to push during next week's Roberts hearings. LINK

2005:
Pat Healy of the New York Times wraps up last night's Democratic primary mayoral debate, which lacked any dramatic flair. LINK

(Note Note: After the debate, Anthony Weiner disavowed the Notion that his answer stating he would vote for Virginia Fields if he couldn't vote for himself had anything to do with starting to woo her supporters in the event he ends up in a runoff with Fernando Ferrer. He simply said she would win his vote because she is "charming and affable.")

The New York Post watched the "lackluster" debate with some undecided Democrats who came away impressed with Rep. Weiner and not so impressed with Fernando Ferrer. LINK

The New York Post's campaign coverage also includes Weiner's "solid second place" showing in the latest Quinnipiac University poll as well as the movements (or lack thereof) of Local 1199 and Rev. Al Sharpton. LINK

Michael Saul of the New York Daily News also uses the word "lackluster" in describing the debate. LINK

On the same day John Edwards evoked his "Two Americas" theme in a speech in North Carolina, the New York Times reports on Fernando Ferrer's reviving his "Two New Yorks" theme from his 2001 campaign. LINK

Roll Call has the fruits of Josh Kurtz's recent New York jaunt, including Anthony Weiner's potential with the same outer-borough voters that elected former Mayors Koch and Giuliani.

The Schwarzenegger Era:
The Los Angeles Times Finnegan and Dolan cast the Governor's decision to veto the gay marriage bill in totally cynical, political terms. LINK

The paper's cagey George Skelton uses sports metaphors to express his disappointment in the Governor's decision. LINK

The New York Times coverage on Gov. Schwarzenegger's decision to veto the same sex marriage bill: LINK

"Mr. Schwarzenegger, who had 30 days to act on the bill, found himself caught between the conservative pull of his Republican Party and a broad coalition of minorities and leaders who say the governor's personal views on same-sex marriage are probably closer to their own."

The San Francisco Chronicle's write-up of Schwarzenegger's veto promise describes the governor as being under "growing pressure from his conservative supporters." LINK

Schwarzenegger's plan to veto a gay-marriage bill "does not end California's fight over the bedroom -- it simply moves it back to the courthouse and potentially the ballot box," the Washington Post's John Pomfret reports. LINK

"Prominent Republican officials in California expect Schwarzenegger to declare his candidacy for the 2006 governor's race sometime between Friday's close of the 2005 legislative session and Sept. 16, the opening day of the state GOP's annual fall convention," Roll Call's David Drucker reports.

Iowa:
Lynn Campbell of the Des Moines Register speculates that Mrs. Laura Bush's visit to a Des Moines elementary school has a possible secondary meaning. Beyond lauding the school's recent educational advancements, the First Lady may recognize a gold-star teacher. LINK

Politics:
Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas Reilly has cleared the way for a 2008 ballot question banning same sex marriage. LINK

Hurricane fundraiser:
There's nothing the DC cognoscenti love more than a good party -- especially if you can feel good about yourself while you are sipping drinks and schmoozing.

Tonight you can do both at a Hurricane Katrina fundraiser at Vida (1120 20th St. NW). Media maven and man about town JP Fielder has pulled together a guest list representing all the concentric circles of the DC social scene to raise money for the American Red Cross.

Details: $20 donation at the door and 15% of bar proceeds go to the American Red Cross. A representative from the Red Cross will be on site to collect your donations. (Vida is at 1120 20th St NW, Phone: 202.293.5433)