The Note: It's a Small World After All
— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 3
NEWS SUMMARY
Is Harriet Miers a trailblazing, conservative, consensus-y, strict constructionist?
Or is she a bureaucratic, undistinguished, paper-pushing cipher-crony?
If her image by the time the Senate votes on her nomination is along the lines of Option 1, she will be confirmed easily, and the President will have gone a miraculous 2 for 2 in getting SCOTUS chairs filled without battle royales.
If her image by that time is more along the lines of Option 2, she will likely be confirmed after a long and hideous process that will include more than one deer-in-the-headlights moment.
In the Oval Office this morning, President Bush nominated Miers as his pick to be the next Associate Justice of the Supreme Court.
He was sure to highlight her legal credentials as well as a series of "firsts" she has achieved. President Bush also used the Roberts confirmation process as the example to be followed in the Miers confirmation process.
(Note to Elisabeth Bumiller: You can keep that beautific grin of yours on all day long.)
Miers was offered the job Sunday evening during dinner with the President in the White House residence. The White House plans to highlight her career as a "trailblazer" for other women to follow in Texas and in Washington. And as the White House will say over and over, her name was proposed by Democrats and Republicans in the consultation process with the Senate.
One senior Democratic source on Capitol Hill confirms to ABC News that Democratic Leader Harry Reid signaled to Bush that Miers would be acceptable.
Remember: Any pick would have set off political landmines, and in the end Miers seems as "safe" a pick for confirmation -- without a bloody fight -- as anyone else, perhaps the "safest" pick.
We bet in the end this means no filibuster (threat) -- or any Democratic Senators coming out to oppose her right away. It also flies in the face of the Notion that the President would have to pick someone to "satisfy" the base.
But/and with even less a paper trail than John Roberts, if she insists on not discussing her views (as seems very likely), it is possible that a right-left coalition in the Senate and among the interest groups could oppose her. But we seriously doubt that. She might lose a few votes on each extreme, and some outside groups (and bloggers) will scream about a pig-in-poke, but the White House has bet (as it rarely does) on a win based on taking the center (and having it hold).
After another round of assurances that this time the process to replace a Supreme Court justice would be a "war" and "Armageddon," the White House has a reasonable chance of avoiding that -- again.
And/but it also seems to bring into doubt one (and perhaps two) of the President's campaign promises on the Court. First, it is hard to argue that Miers is, based on her career, in the mold of Scalia and Thomas. How the White House has tried to convince the right of that -- and how they will now -- will be interesting to Note. But, of course, the Administration did just that -- to our amazement -- on Roberts. Senator Brownback, over to you.
Second, even some senior Republicans have said in the last week that they found it unlikely that Miers could be painted as the kind of "intellectual giant" that the President has said he would look for.
The biggest political question right now is how groups on the right (not directly affiliated with the White House operation) -- especially those who demanded a nominee determined to overturn Roe -- will react.
They can start reacting to this: While active in the ABA in late 1990's Miers was a leader of the movement to get ABA to rescind it's pro-choice positions and support for tax payer funded abortion for poor women. She was unsuccessful. (This makes Leonard Leo very happy.)
In the Oval Office announcement this morning (with President Bush's blue tie nicely complimenting Ms. Miers' blue attire), Miers' offered heartfelt thanks to her family and the President in her Texas twang. She also demonstrated that she may not be as comfortable on camera as the consistently smooth John Roberts.
A former Administration official tells ABC News this morning, "It shows how the President values tremendous loyalty. . . but she is no John Roberts."
One Democratic source indicates to us this morning that the opposition from the left will try to use her closeness to President Bush as a liability. Democrats will express a desire for Miers to demonstrate her independence in this "air of cronyism." And you can bet that there will be a fight over "executive privilege" and "attorney-client privilege" over access to Miers' White House work, and we know (without asking) where this White House will come down on that.
Surprise, surprise, surprise: early indications are that the left does not have its Miers files ready to go and they'll be scrambling as they did with Roberts.
At 11:00 am ET, Supreme Court nominee Harriett Miers will meet with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) for a photo opportunity.
Miers: Set the bloggers loose:
Miers has donated to Democratic candidates in the past, including a $1,000 donation to Al Gore's first presidential run on Feb. 16, 1988, a $1,000 contribution to then-Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's (D) Senate re-election campaign on March 30, 1987, and a $1,000 contribution to the DNC Services Corporation/Democratic National Committee on Nov. 3, 1988. LINK
We expect to hear more about this July 17, 2000, Newsweek story about the President's service in the National Guard:
"The Bushies' concern began while he was running for a second term as governor. A hard-nosed Dallas lawyer named Harriet Miers was retained to investigate the issue; state records show Miers was paid $19,000 by the Bush gubernatorial campaign. She and other aides quickly identified a problem -- rumors that Bush had help from his father in getting into the National Guard back in 1968. Ben Barnes, a prominent Texas Democrat and a former speaker of the House in the state legislature, told friends he used his influence to get George W. a guard slot after receiving a request from Houston oilman Sid Adger. Barnes said Adger told him he was calling on behalf of the elder George Bush, then a Texas congressman. Both Bushes deny seeking any help from Barnes or Adger, who has since passed away. Concerned that Barnes might go public with his allegations, the Bush campaign sent Don Evans, a friend of W's, to hear Barnes's story. Barnes acknowledged that he hadn't actually spoken directly to Bush Sr. and had no documents to back up his story. As the Bush campaign saw it, that let both Bushes off the hook. And the National Guard question seemed under control."
Erick Erickson of the redstate.org blog writes: LINK
"Me, the sources, everyone it seems was wrong. We've all heard the rumors, but not a one could believe the President would do that. Where is our Scalia/Thomas?"
"I think I'll let the President fight this battle himself, for now."
"It appears, for what it is worth, that George W. Bush was the ultimate stealth nominee. He has acted like a true-blue conservative, talking the talk and walking the tax cut walk. But, he has expanded government, spent the future, and now nominated she who has the potential to be a female Souter."
"Let's hope I'm wrong, but right now I'm not impressed."
Erickson is somewhat assuaged by the Miers push to have the full ABA membership vote on the organization's official stance on abortion: LINK
Brad Berenson reacts:
Former White House associate counsel (Bush 43, term one) and current ABC News consultant Brad Berenson weighs-in with this assessment on the Miers nomination:
"The case for Harriet comes down to conservative, confirmable woman. It also answers the Senate's suggestion for someone outside the 'judicial monastery.' But the real driver is clearly her relationship with the President, which is extremely close and long-standing. She was his personal counsel in Texas, was deeply involved in the legal aspects of the campaign in 2000, and has served loyally, discreetly, and ably in several important roles in the White House. In that sense, the choice of Harriet is most reminiscent of another Texas President -- Lyndon Johnson -- choosing his long-time personal counsel, Abe Fortas."
"Unlike most of the other candidates, Harriet would not have been on anyone's short-list of the lawyers in America best qualified for the Supreme Court before George Bush was inaugurated. However, that is not to say she is unqualified or poorly qualified. On the contrary, she has had quite a distinguished career in private practice and in government and is generally regarded as smart and capable. In this respect, her nomination most resembles that of Lewis Powell, who came to the Court from a position of leadership in the private bar. Other Justices who had no previous judicial experience include Chief Justice Rehnquist and Byron White."
"The choice seems to satisfy the President's main substantive objectives: she is definitely conservative, she is a woman, and she will almost certainly be confirmed as easily as Roberts was. All of the Senators know her personally and generally have a high opinion of her. (Obviously but interestingly, she also has a close relationship now with the new Chief Justice, John Roberts, which raises the prospect that the two will work closely together on the Court.)"
"Even by comparison with John Roberts, she has almost no paper trail. She is also extremely cautious and careful, so Senators who may wish to oppose her will have a virtually impossible time finding a handhold. This does not mean her general judicial philosophy is unknown: people who know her are confident she is quite conservative and a genuine, principled believer in judicial restraint. But her views on particular issues involving the US Constitution are totally unknown. She simply has not dealt with very many of those."
Harriett Miers for Associate Justice:
Ms. Miers received her bachelor's degree in Mathematics in 1967 and J.D. in 1970 from Southern Methodist University. LINK and LINK
Upon graduation, she clerked for U.S. District Judge Joe E. Estes from 1970 to 1972. LINK
In 1972, Ms. Miers became the first woman hired at Dallas's Locke Purnell Rain Harrell. In March 1996, her colleagues elected her the first female President of Locke, Purnell, Rain & Harrell, at that time a firm of about 200 lawyers. She became the first female to lead a Texas firm of that size. Locke, Purnell eventually merged with a Houston firm and became Locke Liddell & Sapp, LLP, where Ms. Miers became Co-Managing Partner and helped manage an over-400-lawyer firm. In 1972, Ms. Miers became the first woman hired at Dallas's Locke Purnell Rain Harrell. LINK
Some of her past clients include Microsoft LINK, Disney LINK, and SunGuard Data Systems LINK
.In 1985, Ms. Miers was selected as the first woman to become President of the Dallas Bar Association. LINK
In 1992, she became the first woman elected President of the State Bar of Texas. Ms. Miers served as the President of the State Bar of Texas from 1992 to 1993.
Ms. Miers also served as the chair of the ABA's Commission on Multijurisdictional Practice. LINK
She served in President Bush's transition in 2000 as Assistant to the President and Staff Secretary. LINK
Miers served as President Bush's personal lawyer, as chronicled by Elisabeth Bumiller. LINK
She has done an on-line chat on the White House Web site defending the President's policies on everything from drilling in ANWR to No Child Left Behind to economic policy. LINK
The Washington Post had this profile of her back in June. LINK
From 1995 until 2000, Miers was chair of the Texas Lottery Commission. LINK
Some more on her service as the first woman president of Texas State Bar Association: LINK
Other news:
The Los Angeles Times' Savage writes up Rep. DeLay's Sunday comments where he asserted his ability to remain a power player on the Hill despite being stripped of his official leadership role. LINK
The Washington Post's Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Jim VandeHei write that the "DeLay network" is growing and formidable with many former DeLay staffers in full support of their old boss. LINK
Other Monday schedule items:
President Bush is expected to attend the 9:15 am ET investiture ceremony for the Chief Justice of the United States at the Supreme Court. The ceremony will be closed to cameras, but immediately following the ceremony, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., Associate Justice John Paul Stevens, and the Chief Justice's family will be available for photographers at approximately 9:30 am ET on the front plaza of the U.S. Supreme Court building.
Justice Stevens and the new Chief Justice will walk down the front steps of the building and stand briefly at the base of the steps on the plaza. They will not be available for questions.
Other than the Chief's first sitting, the Court may also make some news by announcing whether or not it will hear the Hamdan case.
And ABC News' Arianne DeVogue reports, "the biggest case next week will be oral arguments on Oct. 5 in the 'right to die' case out of Oregon, Gonzales v Oregon. The case stems from attempts in 2001 by then-Attorney General John Ashcroft to go after Oregon doctors who participated in physician-assisted suicide. At issue is whether doctors who follow the state's 'Death with Dignity Act' and prescribe lethal prescriptions to terminally ill patients to help them die are violating the federal Controlled Substances Act."
The President is scheduled to meet with the Prime Minister of Malta in the Oval Office at 10:15 am ET.
If you would like to get on-camera reaction from Sen. Clinton, you will have to try and do so at one of her three upstate appearances today in Massena, Watertown, and Lowville, NY.
When the Senate convenes at 3:00 pm ET, debate will continue on defense appropriations, but there will be no roll call votes until Wednesday.
The House is expected to come in on Thursday evening for suspension votes. On Friday the House is likely to vote on a new energy bill.
Vice President Cheney heads down to Camp Lejune, North Carolina today. He is expected to deliver remarks at 11:00 am ET and attend a luncheon welcoming home members of the 3rd Battalion, 25th Marine Regiment at noon ET.
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi will join Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-MA) at an 11:30 am ET press availability following a roundtable discussion with Massachusetts business and academic leaders to discuss a new Democratic initiative promoting technology and innovation.
Republican Party leaders are making a campaign swing through the Commonwealth of Virginia today in support of African American candidates for sheriff. RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman, Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, and others will campaign with Alexandria sheriff candidate Bill Cleveland at 2:00 pm ET in Alexandria, VA.
Former President Clinton is expected to visit Western Connecticut State University in Danbury, CT to thank students for their fundraising efforts to help the victims of Katrina and the tsunami that struck South Asia last year.
Rev. Al Sharpton's 51st birthday rally/fundraiser for the victims of Hurricane Katrina will take place tonight at the Apollo Theater in New York City.
Steve Forbes brings his "Flat Tax Revolution" to the New Hampshire Institute of Politics in Manchester, NH.
The week ahead:
President Bush has no public schedule, as of this writing, for tomorrow or Wednesday.
The other big ticket item for President Bush this week will be his remarks on the war on terror at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC on Thursday morning. The President will also participate in a tribute to National Review and William Buckley on Thursday.
On Friday, President Bush is scheduled to meet with the Prime Minister of Hungary. In the afternoon, he is slated to make remarks about Hispanic Heritage Month.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is scheduled to address the New Hampshire House of Representatives in Concord, NH on Friday.
