The Note: Friends and Allies

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 6

NEWS SUMMARY
There's nothing like a(n ABC News exclusive) story about an alleged spy in the White House, a major presidential speech on the war-for-survival of our time, or a Gang of 500 fever-pitch expectation that something big is about to happen in the Fitzgerald CIA leak investigation to distract The Note's attention from the politics of the Harriet Miers nomination.

The possibility of target letters or indictments courtesy of Mr. Fitzgerald is hugely anticipated and deftly written up by the Reuters news agency.

Picking up on the all the buzz swirling around Washington, the report says that Fitzgerald "is expected to signal within days whether he intends to bring indictments in the case, legal sources close to the investigation said on Wednesday." LINK

(If you or your client has received a target letter, please email us and let us know: politicalunit@abcnews.com)

More from Reuters: "Fitzgerald could announce plea agreements, bring indictments, or conclude that no crime was committed. By the end of this month he is expected to wrap up his nearly two-year-old investigation into who leaked CIA operative Valerie Plame's identity."

And a bit more: "Rove's attorney, Robert Luskin, declined to say whether his client had been contacted by Fitzgerald. In the past, Luskin has said that Rove was assured that he was not a target."

As for the alleged spy and the major speech on the war on terror -- they are both darn fascinating political stories with monster implications.

But it is the Miers nomination -- as pure political theater and as a potentially pivotal moment in the relationship between the President of the United States and the conservative movement -- that remains front and center.

With the Democratic Party "acting" as virtual bystanders, the raging conflict within the Republican Party is moving in directions no one can predict. But/and those who say the Bush Administration has never faced anything like this are absolutely correct.

The best case for Miers and Bush at this point is that she performs well enough in her courtesy visits and hearings to get confirmed in an ugly process, and the White House figures out a way to repair relations with the base. (Although some think the best case for Bush -- and maybe Miers even -- is to figure out a way to withdraw her name.)

As of now, though, it is full speed ahead, with the White House working to convince those who need convincing that Miers is a highly intelligent conservative completely worthy of this seat. And with some of the President's supporters working to attribute motives to those critics who might be running for president in 2008 or are looking for attention.

At 3:30 pm ET Ken Mehlman, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, along with "several national conservative leaders who are strongly supporting" Miers will be holding a conference call with nation-wide grassroots leaders to discuss the nomination.

We look forward to seeing how effective the "conservative leaders" are in convincing the "grassroots leaders" to support Miers. And if the results leak out by the evening news. Assuming the call isn't cancelled.

Meanwhile, President Bush will give what the White House is calling a "significant" and "major" speech on the war on terrorism tomorrow at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC at 10:10 am ET. (Note Note: Don't expect anything earth shattering, just some newly crafted words about the enemy the United States faces.)

ABC News' polling director Gary Langer weighs in with this: "As noted (sic.) last week, in our last poll, 9/11, Bush was down to a split decision on his handling of terrorism: Fifty percent approved, while 47 percent disapproved. We'd point to three reasons his rating on terrorism has declined: because he's successfully linked the war on terrorism to the war in Iraq, and there's a broad sense the war in Iraq is not going well (August was particularly bad for casualties); because the Katrina response has damaged his leadership ratings (50 percent in our last poll called him a strong leader, the fewest of his career); and because people are unhappy about $3 gas and as a result they're viewing him more critically across the board."

The President will participate in a tribute to National Review magazine at 11:40 am ET in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, which is when we would expect him to celebrate Miers and judicial restraint.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is scheduled to meet with Harriet Miers in his office at 2:25 pm ET. Sen. Brownback will hold a media availability at approximately 3:00 pm ET. Sen. Durbin (D-IL) plans to meet with the Supreme Court nominee at 6:00 pm ET.

Democrats continue to push their "culture of corruption" theme at a Senate Swamp press conference today with Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL), and others at 2:30 pm ET.

The Senate will resume consideration of the Defense Appropriations Bill, when it reconvenes at 9:30 am ET. Sen./Dr./Leader Frist expects to complete action on the defense spending measure prior to the Columbus Day recess next week.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds her weekly press conference at 10:45 am ET.

At 9:00 am ET in the Willard Hotel, William Galston and Elaine Kamarck will brief reporters on "The Politics of Polarization," a new study commissioned by Third Way: A Strategy Center for Progressives.

At 2:00 pm ET, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) will hold a news conference in the Senate gallery on rebuilding Louisiana.

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee is holding a hearing on how FEMA is conducting hurricane relief at 9:00 am ET. Acting FEMA Director David Paulison is expected to testify.

At 10:00 am ET, the Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the financial future of the Gulf Coast. Treasury Secretary John Snow is expected to testify.

Sens. Clinton (D-NY) and Roberts (R-KS) will hold a 12:15 pm ET press conference call on legislation they have introduced "to help prevent recurring shortages of flu vaccine and strengthen our vaccine delivery infrastructure so that we are able to respond to a crisis."

First Lady Laura Bush and Ms. Klára Dobrev, the wife of Hungary's Prime Minister, are slated to tour Martha's Table at 11:30 am ET. LINK

Gov. Romney (R-MA) is in Washington, DC today where he will meet with Commerce Secretary Gutierrez to discuss healthcare reform in Massachusetts, Sen. Specter on LIHEAP, and attend National Review's 50th anniversary celebration.

Former Attorney General and Republican gubernatorial nominee Jerry Kilgore will make five campaign stops today with Wayne LaPierre, the Executive Vice President of the National Rifle Association. Kilgore and LaPierre will visit Winchester, Weyers Cave, Roanoke, Abingdon, and Danville.

Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine holds a 9:15 am ET press conference in Richmond, VA.

In New York City, Democratic mayoral candidate Fernando Ferrer will share the stage at the famed Apollo Theater with Conservative Party candidate Tom Ognibene, but Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not be participating in the first official Campaign Finance Board sanctioned debate of the general election season. The "debate" gets underway at 7:00 pm ET and will be aired on NY1 News.

Mayor Bloomberg will be appearing at the Empire State Pride Agenda Fall Dinner at 6:45 pm ET.

At 7:30 pm ET, former Sen. John Edwards will speak at the second public forum of the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service. Edwards will also hold a 3:00 pm ET media availability.

Conservatives rethinking President Bush:
From one clear-eyed and whip smart conservative to The Note, regarding our work from yesterday:

"Bingo as usual for The Note: The [George] Will column is big. We are in uncharted territory on this. Bush has never had to go into battle with most of the base actively opposed to him. Even BCRA and all the spending bills were largely inside-the-beltway subjects. This isn't. The White House did know in advance that this pick would get a bad reaction from the base."

"Larger consequence, I think, is that W's tenure as head of the conservative movement ended at 8 a.m. Monday."

"The whole Miers fiasco reminds me of the scene in 'Lost in America' in which Albert Brooks confronts his wife, who has just lost their nest egg gambling in Vegas. 'You're not supposed to lose the nest egg,' says Brooks. 'That's why it's called a "nest egg!"'" This nomination was the nest egg for the base. It was why a lot of people held their noses over many issues and stuck around. No more. I think we are now in for 3+ years of gridlock and not much out of Washington other than lobbyist-driven legislation. What a waste."

"The best thing that could happen to Bush now is a Miers scandal that forces her to withdraw and gives Bush a do-over."

For the second consecutive day, the New Hampshire Union Leader editorial page is showing no love for the Bush White House, today questioning the President's conservative credentials. LINK

"Is President Bush a conservative? That depends on what the definition of conservative is. He certainly is a social conservative. But if a conservative is someone who believes that government should be as small, lean and local as possible, then it is hard to argue that President Bush is one. If he is, he has a most peculiar way of showing it," concludes the editorial board.

Bob Novak writes that conservatives are asking two questions: "Is this what we fought for?" and "What was he thinking?" LINK

Nut Novak graph: "Nothing could have more quickly deflated Republican spirits. The antidote to the Iraq-Katrina malaise was the spectacular confirmation performance by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., and Republicans eagerly awaited Act Two: confirmation of a successor to social liberal Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. This was one issue where the wind was at Bush's back, not in his face. But he robbed his legions of spirit with the Miers nomination."

Novak goes on to write that Bush was seriously considering Priscilla Owen, but some Republican Senators advised they didn't want to fight for her again so soon.

Novak also includes some Bushology: "Bushologists figure the president was irked by repetitive demands that he satisfy the base with his Supreme Court appointments. He also was irked by the conservative veto of his Texas friend and Miers' predecessor at the White House, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales."

Erick Erickson of RedState.org posts this on his blog: LINK

"Let me say that if I were forced to pick between Gonzales and Miers, I would go with Gonzales."

"On both we are told to trust the President. On both we are told that they are "right on life." But, Gonzales has a resume that, I think, would make him more qualified."

"That is heresy for many, perhaps even Hugh, I realize. But, that's where I am at with this. If we're to trust the White House with a nominee, at least give me one with a resume that I think demonstrates a more qualified person for the highest court in the nation."

"After all, there are potentially 49 other women who have been the first female president of a state bar. But there are not so many men or women who have served on a state supreme court, worked as White House Counsel, and gone on to be Attorney General of the United States."

Miers: nut graphs suggesting confirmation prospects:
Maura Reynolds and Tom Hamburger of the Los Angeles Times read the tea leaves and conclude Miers is likely to be confirmed, but only "at a price" for the GOP. LINK

"With the GOP bedeviled by questions about the administration's response to Hurricane Katrina, the war in Iraq and ethics questions facing congressional leaders, the party's base could become demoralized, undermining Republicans in next year's midterm elections."

Miers and the White House are being forced to spend this week targeting "what would normally be reliable Republican votes"--but may not be, reports Kathy Kiely in USA Today. LINK

Paul Kane writes in Roll Call that White House aide Ed Gillespie encouraged Republican Senators to support Miers' nomination at the GOP's weekly policy luncheon yesterday. After the meeting he said that as early as today the White House would name a former Senator in charge of pushing Miers' nomination through the Senate.

Miers: key players react:
In a story that says Bush is risking the "biggest rupture with the Republican base of his presidency," the Washington Post's Baker and Balz report that Ed Gillespie suggested at Grover Norquist's "off-the-record" (sic) session with conservatives yesterday that "some of the unease about Miers 'has a whiff of sexism and a whiff of elitism.' Irate participants erupted and demanded that he take it back. Gillespie later said he did not mean to accuse anyone in the room but 'was talking more broadly' about criticism of Miers." LINK

Although it seems relatively smooth sailing with Democrats, conservatives are up in arms and, as Free Congress Foundation President Paul M. Weyrich says, they "can't stomach another 'trust me'" in a Supreme Court nominee reports the Washington Times' Ralph Z. Hallow. LINK

However, Charles Hurt, of the same paper, reports that Harriet Miers is making headway with some Republicans in the Senate. LINK

David Kirkpatrick pieces all the Wednesday string together for his New York Times wrap including George Will's column, Gillespie's Grover and Hill meetings, Sens. Lott and Allen sounding not so supportive, and an excellent (and likely true) prediction of a kicker quote from Sen. Thune. LINK

Thune predicts that Democratic attacks on Miers will rally the base.

Per Bloomberg News, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) said "he doesn't know enough about Miers to say whether he would support her nomination. 'I need to discern Harriet Miers's judicial philosophy,' Allen said in an interview. `I don't know enough about her judicial philosophy to be able to say yea or nay.'" LINK

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank has Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT) saying that Miers assured him that she had 'absolutely not' authorized anybody to say that she would oppose legal abortion, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) saying "the uncertainty out there is palpable," and David Letterman doing the "Top Ten Signs Your Supreme Court Pick Isn't Qualified." LINK

The Des Moines Register's Jane Norman lays out Sen. Chuck Grassley's 'oh-please-calm-yourselves-down, she's-not-the-first-non-judge-ever-nominated' response to the conservatives losing their religion over Bush's pick. LINK

Jonathan Allen and Alexander Bolton write in The Hill that "The Gang of 14's" centrist senators gave preliminary approval yesterday to Miers as President Bush's nominee to replace Sandra Day O'Connor. LINK

Miers: editorials and op-eds:
Swimming against the tide, David Broder thinks that "in the end it is the liberals who will have the most misgiving" about Miers, given the signals she has sent about "strictly" applying the laws and the Constitution at her announcement and his conversation with Leonard Leo. LINK

Martin Garbus, on the Los Angeles Times op-ed page, reviews the Nixon precedent and concludes Bush is on shaky ground if he invokes executive privilege to withhold Miers' papers from the Senate. LINK

Miers: bio:
The Los Angeles Times traces Miers' long relationship with the President, from when she first met him in 1989, through when she "took the pill" and joined the Bush camp, to today. It's a familiar story with a familiar ending: she's loyal to the President. LINK

Nathan Hecht gets a New York Times story of his own in which the reporters appear bizarrely hopeful that they can glean something of Miers' judicial philosophy from Hecht's rulings. LINK

Ubiquitous friend Nathan Hecht tells USA Today Miers will not make decisions on the basis of her religion. LINK

The New York Times also writes up a bit more biographical points on Miers from the trailblazer angle. LINK

Tory Newmyer writes in Roll Call that Miers' former law firm, the Texas-based Locke Liddell & Sapp, just so happened to open its Washington lobbying office this week.

Miers: abortion:
Unlike President Bush, Texas Supreme Court Justice Nathan Hecht told NBC's Katie Couric this morning that he has probably spent some time talking with Harriet Miers about her views on abortion and reasserts his belief that she is indeed pro-life.

Hecht also said that he has spoken with ("visited," as we say in Austin) Miers several times since the President announced her nomination. "She's excited. She's working hard at it," Hecht said. "She's determined to show the American people who she is," he added.

Chief Justice John Roberts:
In his first big case as Chief Justice, John Roberts gets rave reviews from David Savage in the Los Angeles Times for skillfully asking "short, pointed questions" while still keeping his cards close to his unvested chest. LINK

The politics of national security:
It doesn't get much more "made for TV" than a spy inside the White House. ABC's Brian Ross and Rich Esposito were first to report the exclusive details. LINK

"Officials tell ABC News the alleged spy worked undetected at the White House for almost three years. Leandro Aragoncillo, 46, was a U.S. Marine most recently assigned to the staff of Vice President Dick Cheney."

"'I don't know of a case where the vetting broke down before and resulted in a spy being in the White House,' said Richard Clarke, a former White House advisor who is now an ABC News consultant."

The New York Times and Washington Post folo: LINK and LINK

The politics of prisoner abuse:
Remember those photographs of John McCain and President Bush hugging on the campaign trail last year? It now appears the Arizona Republican is back in the more familiar position of starring in stories that begin thusly: "Defying the White House, the Senate overwhelmingly agreed Wednesday to regulate the detention, interrogation and treatment of prisoners held by the American military," reports the New York Times. LINK

Be sure to Note that Sen. Frist is on the McCain side of this battle, not the Bush one.

"90-9 Vote on the Treatment of Detainees Is a Bipartisan Rebuff of the White House," blares the front page of the Washington Post. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon considers yesterday's 90-9 Senate vote to approve rules for detainee treatment to be just another sign of how the President is confronting new -- and tougher -- terrain in Congress thanks to his fellow Republicans. LINK

The Associated Press calls the detainee treatment vote a "rebuke" of the President by members of his own party. LINK

DeLay:
There's may be more trouble for the GOP leadership after the Associated Press says it has documents that show Rep. DeLay channeled money not just to Texas state candidates but also to new Majority Leader Roy Blunt five years ago. The government's former chief election enforcement lawyer tells the AP the documents warrant a new investigation. LINK

Per the Washington Post's Tom Edsall, "David H. Safavian, former chief of White House procurement policy, was indicted yesterday on five counts of lying about his dealings with former Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff and impeding a Senate investigation of him." LINK

The New York Times' Shenon wraps the first indictment in the Abramoff investigation (that of Safavian) with Rep. DeLay's aggressive PR strategy against Ronnie Earle. LINK

Safavian will likely plead not guilty next week to charges of lying and obstructing justice, reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK

The Houston Chronicle's R.G. Ratcliffe and Clay Robison point to partisan politics and past friendships within the grand jury that has indicted Rep. DeLay. LINK

John Bresnahan writes in Roll Call that two Delay political associates, Jim Ellis and John Colyandro, denied yesterday that they are cooperating with Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle.

Lauren W. Whittington and Kate Ackley write in Roll Call that Democrats deny having any connection an anonymous group that is calling constituents in GOP-controlled House districts, encouraging congressmen to return campaign contributions they received from Delay.

Alexander Bolton writes in The Hill that Delay's lead council, Dick DeGuerin, is a Democrat who has contributed to Delay's political opponents. LINK

The politics of Katrina:
House conservatives are pleased with other Republicans' willingness to reopen the budget to look for offsets for Katrina-related spending, instead of the former proposal to borrow all needed funds, says Stephen Dinan of the Washington Times. LINK

In a piece looking at GOP divisions over the range and severity of spending cuts needed to pay for hurricane relief, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman has Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) saying: "I can tell you if we don't see more than rhetoric, this leadership team is not secure." LINK

In an op-ed in USA Today, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu claims "[t]ight-fisted ignorance and misstated statistics" are already leading to broken promises in the federal government's pledge to rebuild her home state. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's David Wessel writes that if you are serious about the deficit, tax increases seem "almost inevitable, like it or not."

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) makes his way into a Wall Street Journal piece about fuel costs straining the federal home-heating program. "'It is unthinkable that this Administration would fail to have the emergency funds available to help families who need it most,' Sen. Kerry said in a statement, suggesting that Democrats will have a powerful issue for next year's elections if there is a shortfall of heating funds this winter."

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Rep. Richard Pombo are nearing an agreement that would "allow some states to waive federal moratoriums on drilling for natural gas on federal land off their shorelines," the Wall Street Journal and others report.

The politics of Iraq:
In the forthcoming issue of Rolling Stone, Tim Dickinson looks at the ways in which the "Free Mumia crowd" scares off Red State Americans who might otherwise embrace a quick exit from Iraq.

Paul Rieckhoff, executive director of the Iraq veterans group Operation Truth, which boycotted the recent anti-war march in Washington, tells Rolling Stone: "When some guy gets up there and rails about Palestine, Karl Rove is kicking back in his chair, saying, 'Please continue.'"

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), the lone '08er who makes a cameo in the piece, is quoted saying that a "'responsible anti-war movement' must ground its opposition to war in Iraq within the broader demands of the war on terror. The troops need to come home not because the war is a colonial occupation but because it makes Americans less safe. 'To be credible, it's critical that progressives be passionate about saying we want to protect Americans lives. We support stopping terrorist networks, but we don't support wars that actually make the terrorist networks stronger.'"

Bill Sammon and Rowan Scarborough of the Washington Times report that President Bush's comments yesterday over the progress being made with Iraqi troops set the stage for his speech today. LINK

The politics of Avian Flu:
Keying off of an interview with HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt, the Wall Street Journal reports on its front page that the Bush Administration will put forth a plan "in coming weeks" to bolster vaccine production, purchase huge quantities of antiviral drugs , and lay out a detailed system to coordinate federal, state and local response efforts to a pandemic.

The Clintons of Chappaqua:
Former President Bill Clinton tells Ladies Home Journal that Iraq "looks like a quagmire". The interview, for the magazine's November issue, is excerpted in the New York Daily News. "It's not Vietnam," he says, but "the odds are not great of our prevailing there." LINK

2008:
David Yepsen speculates that Republicans may have a voter strike from social conservatives on their hands during the 2006 and 2008 elections if Chief Justice John Roberts and Ms. Harriet Miers don't add weight (uhm, conservative weight, that is) to the right side of the bench. Yepsen intimates that President Bush's Supreme Court replacement tactics could reverberate from this moment on whenever future candidates employ the have-a-little-faith-in-me spiel. LINK

Make way in Iowa: Senators John Kerry, Evan Bayh, Bill Frist and Sam Brownback, as well as Govs. Huckabee and Romney will be making stops and appearances in October. LINK

2008: Republicans:
Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is postponing any political announcements about his 2006 and 2008 plans until late November, top officials are citing the delay on a need to focus on Bay State legislation. LINK

Rudy Giuliani's aides say he'll make a decision about a 2008 presidential bid following the 2006 elections. "I'll think I'll return to politics," he told an audience yesterday. LINK

Giuliani jumps into the fold of a Bronx City Council race, endorsing an attorney who worked under him. LINK

2008: Democrats:
John DiStaso's Granite Status mentions that Hillary Clinton will be in Beantown fund-raising for New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch at the end of the month, whilst -- the very night prior -- Ms. Clinton's own Ann Lewis will give the Granite State some speaking time. LINK

Gov. Bill Richardson in a hybrid? The Governor may be trading in his staple SUV for a more economic and environmentally sound car. LINK

The Sioux City Journal's Todd Dorman reports that Gov. Tom Vilsack is entreating Congress to assist in keeping low-income Iowans from the cold this winter. LINK

2006:
Dan Ronayne will likely be smiling all day long that he got the New York Times to write about the DSCC staffers who "improperly obtained the credit report of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele." LINK

Gov. Rell (R-CT) says she will announce her intentions whether or not to seek a gubernatorial term of her own next week, and she strongly hints that she will, reports the New York Times. LINK

The Des Moines Register's Jane Norman writes that Rep. Jim Nussle is bracing for a congressional backlash to his suggestion that shaving off two percent in federal spending might help offset hurricane relief costs. LINK

2005:
Pat Healy of the New York Times takes an excellent look at the political ramifications of the debate over the Apollo debate. LINK

We wonder how the New York Times caught wind of the $15,000 settlement paid two years ago by the city in a defamation lawsuit against Fernando Ferrer. LINK

NY1, which is hosting the mayoral debate at the Apollo Theater in Harlem tonight, will leave an empty chair on stage to remind viewers of Bloomberg's refusal to participate. LINK

After a strong showing in Tuesday's special election, Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist appears to have a realistic shot of taking Chris Cox's former House seat in the O.C., reports the LA Times. LINK

The Schwarzenegger Era:
Lynda Gledhill of the San Francisco Chronicle examines how California's Proposition 76 will effect public schooling and give the Governor enormous power over the budget. LINK

Gledhill also looks at the truth behind the ads for Proposition 74. LINK

A new poll of Californians' political attitudes may mean Gov. Schwarzenegger and his reform proposals are in more trouble than previously thought. LINK

Sightings:
You were not dreaming. That was indeed Mick Jagger dining with Howard Dean at Café Milano last night. The Rolling Stones and DNC front men were joined by the slightly less famous Democratic donors Herb Miller and Bill Teitleman.