The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, June 1, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

July is the month for the Democratic convention.

August is the month for the Republican convention.

September is the month for national security and post-Labor Day voter focus.

October is the month for the debates.

Which makes June the month to add up each side's fundamental advantages in the presidential race:

Bush:

1. The war on terror serving as a potential trump issue, a la the communist threat during the Cold War.2. Incumbency in a time of national crisis will seem safe(r) to a lot of voters.3. The sustaining value of the "Bush brand" (highlighted again this month with 41@80).4. The likeability and accessibility stops haven't even been pulled out yet.5. Laura Bush.6. An improving economy and seemingly successful POTUS projection of "if even one American is looking for work, that's too many" caring.7. The rise of the Republican 527s.8. Candidate confidence and rapid response confidence.9. The political press' general belief the Kerry probably won't win, and inclination to scrutinize the Kerry "record" more than the Bush "record."10. Most imaginable October Surprises favor the President.11. The skew of the Electoral College.

Kerry:

1. An energized base which (we are now ready to say) viscerally dislikes President Bush as much as the right disliked Clinton. (Although no accusations of domestic murders yet . . .)2. Stew of wrong track, events in Iraq, gas prices, and other only semi-controllable factors.3. Famous capacity to close strong.4. Potential week or more of positive coverage if he picks a good running mate.5. Don't forget health care.6. The regularity of the circularity of history (one-term Bush presidencies featuring a war victory in Iraq, stratospheric poll ratings, and, then, decline . . . ).7. The head start of the Democrat 527s.8. Unchallenged in key Blue States such as California, Illinois, and New York.9. Daughters, stepsons, vets unveiled big time in Boston.10. In what would be a Bush irony (and The Note tries exceedingly hard not to misuse the term), the President's team's apparent* belief that Kerry is a phony, liberal, hypocritical Francophile might just blind them so much to his appeal to voters that they (mis)underestimate him all the way through November, and never take him seriously enough to stop him.11. The political press' general preference for (a) underdogs; (b) challengers; (c) change; (d) Democrats; (e) good stories.

The work week will be bookended by two key events -- today's special election to fill the Janklow House seat in South Dakota and Friday's job numbers.

Voters in South Dakota head to the polls for that special House election between Democrat Stephanie Herseth and Republican Larry Diedrich. Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.

The winner has to run again in November.

For whatever reasons of sanity, the national political press over the last few years has stopped imbuing these special elections with cosmic national meaning, but you can bet the winning side will crow.

Although we share the suspicion of some Republicans that THEIR special election wins are often discounted more than those of Democrats by the national press, a Herseth win in a Republican state (and after the Democrats won the cycle's earlier special House race in Kentucky) would be at least semi-eye catching.

At the presidential level, the day's main events involve the showdown on national security -- with both sides playing offense and defense on loose nukes and homeland security.

Sen. Kerry delivers a major address about port security in Palm Beach, Fla. He is expected to outline his plan for working with allies to reduce the threats posed by nuclear, biological and chemical weapons worldwide, and to keep nuclear weapons from being a terrorist threat. Kerry will talk about strengthening the military Thursday in Independence, Mo.

Vice President Cheney speaks about the war on terrorism and the Patriot Act and criticizes Sen. Kerry during a campaign speech in Kansas City.

While his Number Two carries the message of the day, President Bush speaks at the first White House National Conference on Faith-Based and Community Initiatives this morning. ABC News' Aditya Raval reports that President Bush will make a statement about the new Iraqi government in the Rose Garden today at 11:30 am ET. At this writing, it is unclear whether or not the President will take questions from the press.

He travels to Denver this evening to attend an RNC fundraiser.

National Security Advisor Rice speaks to the press on-camera this morning about President Bush's weekend trip to Europe and the upcoming G-8 summit.

The Senate votes on whether to debate a bill that would adjust class-action lawsuits instead of resuming debate on the defense budget, which was under debate before the recess.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

Vice President Cheney hits the road for Kansas City today and will hit Sen. John Kerry for allegedly flip-flopping on the Patriot Act and will address the war on terror and national security.

Kerry voted for the Patriot Act but turned sharply critical toward the anti-terrorism law during the Democratic primaries. Kerry's stated reason? The law was being abused by an Attorney General who "reaches too far." Cheney will charge on Tuesday that Kerry hasn't offered "a single example of the Patriot Act actually being abused."

Cheney on the Patriot Act:

"In a statement supporting the Patriot Act, Senator Kerry said the law would, 'make it a lot more difficult for new terrorist organizations to develop.' I won't be saying this very often in the next few months -- but Senator Kerry was right...The Patriot Act has been crucial in many of our successes. Yet Senator Kerry has chosen this moment, after these victories, to share his second thoughts on the Patriot Act. He now calls the Patriot Act a 'blind spot in the American justice system.' He now says he wants to let vital elements of the Patriot Act expire at the end of next year. What he hasn't shared, however, is a single example of the Patriot Act actually being abused."

Cheney on national security:

"This nation will never go back to the false comforts of the world before 9/11. We are engaging the enemy as we must, in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, so we will not have to face them here at home. And we are not letting our guard down in the defense of the American homeland. At the President's request, Congress created the Department of Homeland Security, the largest reorganization of the federal government since Harry Truman was President. We have taken decisive, focused action to improve security at our borders and ports, and to protect travelers on commercial aircraft. We added billions in new funding for cutting-edge drugs and other defenses against biological attack. We changed the mission of the FBI, and reassigned hundreds of agents to counterterrorism duties, to help prevent terrorist attacks before they can be launched.

"And we took another vital step in defending our homeland with the passage of the USA Patriot Act, which the President signed into law in late 2001. That law solved some dramatic problems that became clear in a post-9/11 world -- problems that put our government at a significant disadvantage in the hunt for terrorists inside America."

Cheney's speech follows the recent release of a Bush ad that hits Kerry on the Patriot Act. The Kerry campaign, for its part, will sponsor a conference call with Sen. Pat Leahy of Vermont and former Deputy Defense Secretary John White in the hopes of making hay out of a Time Magazine story that, in the words of the magazine, "raises questions about Cheney's arm's length policy toward his old employer," Halliburton. LINK

The New York Times' Dick Stevenson wraps up President Bush's visit to Arlington Cemetery yesterday, where he laid a wreath at Tomb of the Unknowns and "then delivered a Memorial Day address in which he acknowledged the "great costs" of the war in Iraq and tied it to the broader effort to combat terrorism." LINK

Taking a look at the Red state/Blue state breakdown of the Electoral Map (which is burned in our brains and often pops up in our dreams), the Boston Globe's Anne Kornblut looks at the BC04 strategy of targeting key states to get to 270 electoral votes and recent polling suggesting the President is possibly slipping in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. LINK

Kornblut writes that those numbers are causing "party stalwarts" to take notice and acknowledge that "[i]t is nearly impossible to patch together the 270 electoral votes needed to win without building broad support nationwide, despite the mathematical quirks of the Electoral College system."

Peter Canellos of the Boston Globe writes that the Bush campaign is "already on orange alert with five months to go before the election," Noting the "shock-and-awe" of the campaign's efforts on the airwaves in defining Sen. Kerry. LINK